***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2019.-28.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.4 18.4 -0.6 39.0 40.8 15.2 15.9 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 14.7 15.3 18.3 -0.5 40.4 41.9 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.3 17.4 18.8 -0.5 40.5 42.1 17.0 17.9 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 14.0 13.7 16.5 0.1 51.4 50.4 12.5 13.6 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.5 13.9 16.6 -0.3 43.3 44.7 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.1 14.3 -0.1 47.1 48.2 12.5 13.2 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 15.2 15.6 18.3 -0.6 38.4 40.3 15.3 16.2 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.3 8.6 14.1 -0.3 42.7 44.1 8.1 9.0 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 15.8 15.2 16.7 -0.3 43.6 45.0 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.1 15.1 -0.2 45.7 46.8 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.3 14.6 16.3 -0.4 40.5 42.5 14.2 15.0 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 13.6 12.9 15.2 -0.4 40.3 42.2 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.6 13.8 14.8 -0.5 37.6 40.2 13.6 14.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.4 15.6 16.3 -0.5 39.4 41.8 15.3 16.1 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 17.0 16.6 18.4 -0.1 47.7 48.2 15.9 16.7 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.2 15.7 -0.3 41.5 43.5 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.4 18.3 -0.3 44.7 45.4 15.9 16.7 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 14.0 13.5 14.2 -0.2 44.9 46.2 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 15.0 15.4 18.5 -0.5 40.9 42.3 15.1 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 10.0 9.5 12.2 -0.2 44.9 46.1 9.0 9.7 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 15.6 14.9 17.8 -0.5 40.3 42.2 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 15.8 15.2 18.3 -0.3 43.6 44.5 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.6 14.8 18.4 -0.5 40.0 41.6 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.1 15.4 16.3 -0.4 41.7 43.6 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 14.2 14.8 17.3 -0.5 40.8 42.5 14.4 15.2 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 13.5 13.9 14.1 -0.5 37.3 39.5 13.7 14.3 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 15.7 14.6 17.8 -0.5 39.9 41.6 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.3 17.1 0.0 50.4 50.1 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.4 12.9 13.6 -0.1 46.4 47.4 12.2 13.1 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 15.2 15.6 18.6 -0.6 39.2 40.9 15.3 16.1 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------