***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 15.1 15.7 19.0 -0.3 44.6 45.6 15.2 16.0 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 14.5 15.3 18.8 -0.3 43.6 44.7 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 16.8 17.6 19.3 -0.4 43.1 44.5 17.0 17.9 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 13.7 13.4 16.9 0.1 52.3 51.6 12.4 13.3 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 15.0 14.4 16.6 -0.2 45.8 46.8 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 12.8 13.5 14.8 -0.1 48.6 49.4 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 14.8 15.5 18.8 -0.5 41.1 42.9 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 9.5 8.9 14.5 -0.3 44.8 46.0 8.3 9.1 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.6 16.6 -0.2 45.7 46.6 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.6 15.2 -0.2 46.4 47.3 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.2 16.3 -0.3 44.4 46.0 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.4 15.4 -0.3 43.0 44.8 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 13.9 14.5 14.4 -0.3 42.9 45.3 14.1 14.8 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 15.4 15.8 16.1 -0.6 37.4 40.3 15.6 16.3 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 17.1 17.0 18.4 0.1 52.3 52.0 16.2 16.9 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 16.6 16.1 15.6 -0.1 46.9 48.2 15.5 16.2 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 15.3 16.1 18.6 -0.3 44.7 45.6 15.5 16.3 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 13.2 13.9 14.0 -0.3 44.2 45.8 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 14.8 15.5 18.8 -0.4 42.7 44.1 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 9.2 9.9 11.8 -0.2 46.1 47.4 9.4 10.1 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 15.8 15.2 17.9 -0.4 43.1 44.5 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 14.4 15.1 18.4 -0.4 43.1 44.6 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 14.3 14.8 18.6 -0.6 38.9 41.4 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 15.2 15.6 16.1 -0.5 40.1 42.4 15.3 16.1 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.5 17.5 -0.2 45.3 46.4 14.9 15.7 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 15.2 14.7 14.4 -0.2 45.8 47.3 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 16.4 15.7 18.2 -0.2 45.4 46.3 14.8 15.9 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 15.0 14.9 17.3 0.2 54.0 53.1 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 12.1 12.7 13.5 -0.3 43.3 45.2 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 14.9 15.7 19.1 -0.4 43.1 44.3 15.1 16.0 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------