***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 15.1 15.0 18.1 -0.9 24.0 27.4 15.4 15.9 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 14.8 14.7 17.9 -0.9 23.7 27.0 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 17.2 17.1 18.4 -0.9 24.4 28.0 17.4 17.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 12.8 13.0 16.1 -0.4 36.5 39.3 12.9 13.5 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 13.5 13.6 16.1 -0.7 27.3 31.2 13.8 14.3 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 12.8 12.8 14.0 -0.5 31.8 35.6 12.9 13.3 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 15.3 15.1 18.0 -1.0 21.6 24.8 15.6 16.1 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 8.3 8.3 13.7 -0.7 26.2 29.6 8.5 9.0 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 14.9 14.9 16.2 -0.6 28.1 31.8 15.1 15.6 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 14.8 14.9 14.6 -0.6 29.3 32.7 15.0 15.5 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 14.4 14.4 15.8 -0.8 24.5 28.6 14.7 15.2 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 12.6 12.6 14.7 -0.8 23.3 27.0 12.9 13.3 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 13.7 13.5 14.2 -0.8 21.5 26.3 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 15.4 15.3 15.8 -0.8 22.2 25.4 15.7 16.1 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 16.2 16.3 17.9 -0.4 35.0 38.0 16.2 16.8 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 15.1 15.0 15.2 -0.7 26.3 30.6 15.3 15.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 15.9 15.9 17.8 -0.8 26.8 29.9 16.1 16.6 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 13.0 13.1 13.7 -0.6 28.0 31.4 13.3 13.8 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 15.1 15.0 18.0 -0.9 23.7 27.0 15.3 15.8 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 9.2 9.1 11.5 -0.6 27.5 30.8 9.3 9.8 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 14.7 14.7 17.4 -0.8 24.5 28.3 14.9 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 14.8 14.7 17.8 -0.8 26.2 29.2 14.9 15.4 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 14.5 14.4 17.9 -1.0 21.7 24.9 14.8 15.3 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 15.2 15.2 15.8 -0.8 24.3 27.7 15.4 15.9 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 14.7 14.7 16.8 -0.8 25.1 28.7 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 13.9 13.8 13.8 -0.7 24.5 28.9 14.1 14.5 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 14.6 14.6 17.4 -0.8 25.0 28.3 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 13.8 14.0 16.6 -0.4 37.6 40.4 13.9 14.4 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 12.4 12.4 13.0 -0.6 27.5 30.8 12.6 13.0 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 15.3 15.2 18.2 -1.0 23.4 26.6 15.6 16.1 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------