***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 25.6 24.5 25.7 -3.4 9.7 12.1 27.3 28.8 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 25.4 24.3 25.8 -3.6 9.5 11.5 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 99 1 0 100 25.4 24.5 25.8 -3.5 10.7 13.1 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 19.8 19.3 23.6 -2.3 19.0 22.3 20.7 22.2 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 90 10 0 100 26.2 25.6 24.3 -3.0 14.4 16.8 27.9 29.4 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 87 13 0 100 25.7 25.4 22.2 -2.4 17.0 19.8 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 98 2 0 100 25.6 24.4 25.6 -3.5 8.9 11.1 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 96 4 0 100 14.2 13.8 21.8 -3.2 13.9 15.9 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 86 14 0 100 25.8 25.1 25.3 -2.9 14.9 17.4 27.2 28.8 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 88 12 0 100 25.5 25.1 23.0 -2.8 16.1 18.5 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 93 7 0 100 25.7 25.3 24.7 -3.1 15.1 17.4 27.4 28.9 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 95 5 0 100 24.9 24.4 23.3 -3.3 13.7 15.9 26.6 28.0 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 92 8 0 100 26.4 25.7 24.3 -3.2 13.0 15.6 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 98 2 0 100 25.2 24.3 24.2 -3.3 10.9 13.1 26.9 28.4 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 81 19 0 100 27.7 27.3 26.8 -2.6 17.0 20.1 28.8 30.1 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 89 11 0 100 27.1 26.5 24.4 -3.0 14.6 17.2 28.6 30.1 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 94 6 0 100 25.1 24.2 25.6 -3.3 10.9 13.2 26.7 28.1 29.4 29 Palic 37000G16 96 4 0 100 24.6 24.2 21.7 -3.1 13.8 15.9 26.2 27.6 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 96 4 0 100 25.1 24.1 25.9 -3.5 10.7 12.8 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 98 2 0 100 20.2 19.7 19.6 -3.2 13.1 15.1 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 96 4 0 100 25.6 24.8 25.7 -3.2 11.6 14.0 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 93 7 0 100 25.5 24.8 25.6 -3.1 12.7 14.8 27.1 28.5 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 96 4 0 100 25.2 24.4 25.8 -3.5 11.5 13.7 26.9 28.4 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 99 1 0 100 24.9 24.2 24.2 -3.3 11.7 13.9 26.7 28.2 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 98 2 0 100 26.0 25.0 24.6 -3.4 10.2 12.5 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 95 5 0 100 26.5 25.8 22.8 -3.5 11.5 13.8 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 97 3 0 100 25.4 24.2 25.1 -3.4 9.5 12.0 27.1 28.5 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 27.9 27.5 25.1 -2.3 19.2 22.5 28.8 30.1 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 95 5 0 100 19.7 19.3 21.0 -3.0 14.4 16.6 21.4 22.9 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 98 2 0 100 25.2 24.2 25.8 -3.5 9.9 12.1 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------