***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2019.-04.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 30.2 29.1 30.0 -0.7 41.5 43.3 28.4 29.7 30.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 28.2 29.0 30.0 -0.6 41.8 43.5 28.4 29.6 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 30.2 29.2 30.5 -0.5 43.9 45.4 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 23.3 23.3 28.9 0.4 55.9 54.6 21.6 22.9 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 30.7 30.0 28.7 -0.2 47.1 47.9 28.9 30.2 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 29.3 28.9 26.2 0.1 51.3 50.6 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 27.9 28.7 29.8 -0.8 39.4 41.4 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 16.7 17.6 26.8 -0.6 42.9 44.3 16.9 18.1 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 30.3 29.7 29.0 -0.1 49.1 49.4 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 30.0 29.3 27.6 -0.1 48.6 48.8 28.1 29.5 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 30.3 29.4 28.6 -0.3 45.6 46.5 28.4 29.7 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 29.6 28.4 28.3 -0.7 41.2 43.1 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 30.5 29.5 27.4 -0.5 42.8 44.3 28.8 30.0 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 27.7 28.3 27.6 -1.0 37.1 39.8 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 31.1 31.2 30.3 0.5 57.7 55.9 29.5 30.7 31.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 31.3 30.7 28.4 -0.1 48.9 49.1 29.4 30.8 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 29.6 28.6 29.9 -0.5 44.0 45.2 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 28.9 28.0 26.6 -0.3 45.4 46.5 27.1 28.4 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 27.8 28.6 30.2 -0.7 41.9 43.7 28.0 29.1 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 22.8 23.7 23.9 -0.6 41.4 43.2 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 30.2 29.3 29.6 -0.4 44.8 46.0 28.4 29.7 31.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 28.1 29.0 29.8 -0.5 43.7 45.2 28.3 29.4 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 27.7 28.4 30.0 -0.9 39.1 41.5 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 27.5 28.4 28.1 -0.6 42.2 44.0 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 30.5 29.5 28.4 -0.4 44.4 45.6 28.6 29.9 31.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 30.1 29.0 28.1 -0.6 41.7 43.6 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 30.1 29.0 29.1 -0.6 42.4 44.0 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 31.0 31.1 29.5 0.6 58.6 56.6 29.5 30.6 31.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 22.3 23.3 25.4 -0.6 42.7 44.3 22.6 23.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 28.0 28.8 30.1 -0.7 41.2 43.1 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------