***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 27.4 28.6 30.1 -0.5 43.5 44.4 27.8 29.1 30.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 27.3 28.4 30.0 -0.6 42.5 44.2 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 27.1 28.5 30.5 -0.3 45.6 45.8 27.5 28.8 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 22.4 22.5 29.0 0.6 58.2 55.4 20.6 21.9 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 27.9 29.5 28.9 0.1 51.2 50.0 28.1 29.4 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 28.6 28.5 26.5 0.4 55.3 53.7 26.8 28.1 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 27.0 28.0 29.8 -0.7 40.1 42.5 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 17.9 17.5 27.2 0.0 49.8 49.0 16.4 17.5 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 29.4 29.0 29.1 0.2 52.5 50.7 27.6 28.9 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 29.1 28.9 27.9 0.3 53.4 51.4 27.5 28.6 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 29.5 29.0 28.8 0.1 50.8 49.8 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 28.7 28.1 28.7 -0.1 48.7 48.4 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 29.9 29.3 27.8 -0.1 49.1 48.9 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 26.9 27.9 27.6 -0.8 39.1 40.8 27.4 28.6 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 30.1 30.2 30.3 0.6 57.9 56.0 28.6 29.7 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 30.6 30.3 28.7 0.3 53.8 52.2 28.7 30.0 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 26.4 27.8 29.9 -0.4 44.3 45.5 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 28.1 27.7 26.8 0.0 50.0 48.7 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 26.9 28.0 30.2 -0.5 43.3 44.5 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 24.2 23.6 24.2 -0.1 48.2 47.8 22.6 23.8 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 27.4 28.8 29.6 -0.2 47.3 47.0 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 26.9 28.3 29.7 -0.4 44.3 45.3 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 27.1 28.1 30.1 -0.6 42.1 43.2 27.5 28.6 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 26.8 28.0 28.1 -0.4 45.0 45.0 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 27.8 29.0 28.5 -0.2 46.7 46.8 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 29.6 29.1 28.5 -0.1 49.3 49.3 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 27.2 28.3 29.1 -0.4 44.2 45.0 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 30.0 30.3 29.6 0.7 60.2 57.2 28.4 29.6 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 23.6 23.0 25.6 -0.1 48.3 47.6 21.9 23.1 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 27.2 28.2 30.1 -0.6 42.3 43.8 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------