***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 28.1 28.1 28.7 -1.3 26.7 30.3 28.4 29.1 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 28.0 28.0 28.8 -1.4 25.9 29.7 28.3 29.0 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 28.0 28.0 29.1 -1.2 28.6 32.2 28.2 29.0 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 22.7 22.2 27.2 -0.2 45.4 46.6 21.6 22.4 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 28.6 28.9 27.5 -0.8 33.9 36.9 28.8 29.7 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 28.7 27.9 25.1 -0.5 39.1 41.7 27.6 28.3 29.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 27.9 27.7 28.6 -1.4 23.7 27.6 28.2 28.9 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 16.7 16.8 25.4 -1.1 30.3 33.8 16.9 17.6 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 29.5 28.5 28.0 -0.7 36.4 39.1 28.3 29.1 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 29.2 28.2 26.3 -0.7 37.1 39.6 28.0 28.9 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 28.2 28.3 27.6 -0.9 32.5 35.7 28.3 29.2 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 27.4 27.4 26.9 -1.2 28.5 32.3 27.6 28.4 29.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 28.6 28.5 26.7 -1.1 27.9 32.1 28.8 29.6 30.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 27.6 27.5 26.7 -1.5 23.3 26.9 28.0 28.7 29.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 30.5 29.9 29.3 -0.3 43.3 45.0 29.4 30.2 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 29.3 29.5 27.3 -0.8 34.6 37.8 29.4 30.3 31.1 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 27.4 27.5 28.7 -1.1 28.6 32.2 27.7 28.4 29.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 28.2 27.2 25.2 -0.9 32.3 35.2 27.2 27.9 28.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 27.6 27.6 28.9 -1.3 27.2 30.8 27.8 28.6 29.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 22.9 22.9 22.7 -1.1 28.4 31.9 23.1 23.9 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 28.2 28.2 28.5 -1.1 30.0 33.4 28.4 29.2 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 27.8 28.0 28.5 -1.1 29.9 33.2 28.1 28.9 29.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 27.7 27.6 28.8 -1.4 26.1 29.7 28.0 28.7 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 27.6 27.5 27.0 -1.2 27.8 31.2 27.8 28.5 29.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 28.3 28.4 27.3 -1.1 28.6 32.1 28.6 29.4 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 28.3 28.1 26.5 -1.3 25.5 30.2 28.5 29.3 30.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 27.9 27.9 27.9 -1.2 27.0 30.5 28.1 28.9 29.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 30.4 30.0 28.2 -0.1 47.1 48.3 29.4 30.1 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 22.5 22.5 24.2 -1.0 30.5 33.6 22.6 23.4 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 27.8 27.8 28.8 -1.4 26.1 29.7 28.1 28.9 29.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------