***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 11.5 17.3 14.8 115.4 70.1 61.9 4.1 8.6 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 13.9 16.3 12.7 134.4 74.4 62.8 3.7 7.2 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 8.6 11.8 12.6 105.1 67.4 60.0 3.8 7.0 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.4 15.7 14.2 114.8 69.7 58.2 2.9 7.1 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 13.0 14.3 15.0 120.8 71.5 63.4 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 9.4 14.0 13.3 107.2 67.1 60.0 3.5 7.4 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 12.3 14.8 13.6 136.8 74.9 63.6 3.0 6.2 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 45 55 100 16.4 17.5 17.1 117.9 70.4 63.2 4.1 8.5 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 8.0 11.9 14.2 113.4 69.5 62.5 3.4 6.5 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 11.5 12.0 17.8 116.9 70.1 64.4 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 7.0 11.5 13.4 109.2 68.9 61.2 2.1 5.3 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 9.9 15.0 11.7 106.9 67.9 59.2 2.8 7.1 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 5.9 9.2 11.1 103.0 67.4 59.0 1.5 4.2 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 17.6 21.0 19.2 136.7 74.8 66.2 4.0 8.4 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.9 8.7 10.3 91.5 64.4 49.5 2.5 5.1 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 4.8 7.4 11.3 106.2 67.9 59.1 1.5 3.5 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 11.6 16.0 15.3 171.7 81.0 64.8 3.3 6.2 10.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 13.1 14.8 19.4 127.9 72.5 66.2 3.0 6.5 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 10.3 15.8 12.1 121.9 71.6 60.8 4.3 8.1 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 7.8 11.9 18.1 110.8 67.8 62.0 3.2 6.4 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 6.7 10.1 14.0 114.1 69.7 61.5 3.0 5.5 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.3 14.0 14.3 161.2 79.0 62.4 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 7.7 11.6 13.4 117.2 70.6 60.5 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 12.9 15.1 17.2 130.7 73.5 65.6 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 15.4 16.9 17.7 127.1 72.9 64.2 4.3 8.1 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 6.9 11.2 8.9 120.9 71.5 58.0 2.2 4.9 9.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 18.4 19.0 16.6 120.5 71.2 62.6 3.7 8.3 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.4 11.8 11.7 97.5 65.4 53.1 3.0 6.5 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 46 54 100 16.2 18.5 18.8 127.1 72.3 65.0 4.6 8.9 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 8.5 12.7 12.2 116.7 70.5 61.1 3.5 6.6 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------