***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2019.-28.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.9 11.6 8.7 80.2 58.6 45.0 3.3 8.0 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.4 10.8 9.4 97.6 64.2 50.0 2.8 6.3 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 10.4 14.6 10.8 106.1 66.9 53.7 2.7 6.9 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.8 14.3 8.9 90.0 61.2 48.3 3.9 9.1 17.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.6 9.6 8.7 92.5 62.4 49.0 2.6 5.8 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.4 9.9 9.0 80.1 55.6 46.9 3.6 8.0 14.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.1 11.3 8.4 88.6 61.4 46.8 3.6 7.6 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 16.4 20.6 11.0 105.6 66.4 53.2 5.6 11.6 20.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.8 9.3 9.8 91.7 61.3 46.8 2.4 5.8 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.1 16.6 10.9 97.5 63.9 50.5 3.8 9.3 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.2 10.0 9.0 97.0 63.8 52.2 2.5 5.7 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.8 12.5 8.8 102.5 65.3 52.3 2.6 6.4 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.4 9.5 8.5 106.9 66.9 53.1 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.2 18.6 12.1 98.1 64.3 53.7 4.7 10.7 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.3 7.4 6.5 74.0 55.8 43.2 2.6 5.9 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.7 7.5 8.3 95.4 63.0 49.3 2.7 5.0 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 13.0 14.1 8.7 86.2 60.7 49.1 4.5 9.5 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.7 13.9 12.0 91.7 61.3 50.5 4.2 9.2 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 5.0 18.8 10.4 110.5 68.1 53.7 4.1 9.2 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.4 12.7 14.6 111.5 67.8 57.5 3.3 6.9 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 10.9 11.8 9.8 88.7 60.7 47.7 4.0 8.1 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 14.3 18.8 10.6 105.2 67.0 53.9 5.5 10.8 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.2 15.8 10.8 116.2 69.8 55.3 3.4 7.5 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 11.9 14.2 11.3 95.4 62.8 51.7 3.5 8.3 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.1 9.8 81.3 58.4 47.0 3.5 8.0 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.8 12.9 8.6 107.4 66.3 52.3 3.5 7.3 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.6 12.2 10.5 87.3 60.7 49.0 3.8 8.2 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 4.4 11.5 7.7 84.6 59.8 45.5 3.6 8.0 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 17.1 21.3 14.5 102.7 64.8 55.5 6.1 12.6 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 12.4 16.0 10.0 105.2 66.8 51.6 4.3 8.9 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------