***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2019.-04.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 3.4 13.0 7.5 102.2 66.9 42.7 3.2 6.9 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 4.0 16.9 7.0 100.6 66.3 42.8 4.0 9.0 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.6 14.5 8.4 108.7 68.5 45.7 3.4 7.3 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 3.0 9.5 7.1 81.8 61.2 41.9 2.9 6.2 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.7 12.2 7.5 96.2 65.9 43.2 3.6 7.1 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 2.8 9.0 8.4 88.4 62.4 42.2 2.6 5.7 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 2.8 11.5 6.7 96.4 65.1 41.3 3.0 6.6 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 4.4 16.5 8.2 95.5 65.0 41.9 4.4 9.5 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.6 13.5 8.3 100.4 66.8 43.0 3.4 7.2 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 4.1 14.1 9.3 99.0 66.3 43.0 3.9 8.1 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 3.2 12.7 6.3 94.4 65.1 42.4 3.3 7.2 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 3.0 11.0 6.0 89.2 62.6 40.6 3.3 7.0 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 2.4 9.1 6.9 90.9 63.7 44.3 2.5 5.4 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 3.9 17.9 11.8 108.7 68.6 49.5 3.3 8.1 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 1.9 6.8 5.4 83.7 61.5 39.6 1.9 4.4 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 2.8 10.2 6.7 89.7 63.7 43.0 2.8 6.1 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 4.2 16.2 7.3 106.3 67.7 45.1 4.2 8.7 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.0 20.9 12.5 109.2 68.7 49.7 4.9 10.6 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 3.7 15.2 7.4 101.9 66.7 44.7 3.6 8.1 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 6.0 15.0 11.8 104.8 67.0 49.5 5.7 9.6 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.3 14.4 8.7 113.6 70.1 45.9 2.9 6.6 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 3.4 12.1 8.3 103.0 66.9 47.1 3.4 6.7 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.3 13.0 7.7 98.1 65.5 46.7 2.7 6.6 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.3 16.7 11.2 110.3 69.0 49.5 4.7 9.1 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.0 13.6 8.4 106.1 68.3 46.4 2.7 6.4 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 2.8 8.7 5.3 86.7 62.2 39.3 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.4 16.2 8.5 109.8 69.0 46.2 2.8 7.4 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 2.6 8.7 6.4 78.6 60.4 38.9 3.0 5.9 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.8 24.2 13.1 109.1 68.4 51.3 6.3 12.7 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 3.1 11.4 7.2 97.1 65.4 42.5 3.3 6.6 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------