***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 4.3 16.1 8.5 113.5 70.2 46.1 4.4 8.4 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 3.6 14.1 8.4 120.7 71.5 46.7 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.6 17.4 9.7 131.1 74.0 49.1 3.6 7.4 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 5.2 23.7 8.9 118.1 71.6 45.1 5.7 11.4 19.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 3.5 13.1 7.4 111.1 69.6 43.4 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 4.5 16.9 8.2 95.5 65.0 42.2 5.0 10.0 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.2 11.0 7.8 107.6 68.9 47.4 3.1 6.0 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 5.6 20.1 8.4 101.0 66.1 41.8 6.4 11.9 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 4.5 17.8 8.3 115.8 70.5 46.5 4.8 9.3 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 4.8 19.0 9.5 108.6 68.6 44.7 5.2 10.4 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 5.2 17.5 6.8 113.2 69.7 43.9 5.7 10.0 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 4.3 14.0 6.3 102.8 66.7 41.7 4.5 8.3 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 3.1 16.3 7.4 113.2 69.8 44.6 3.0 7.3 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 4.2 17.9 12.2 123.2 72.1 48.8 4.1 8.4 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 4.2 19.5 7.4 122.3 72.6 41.7 4.4 9.0 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 4.0 14.4 7.2 112.5 69.6 43.2 4.2 7.9 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.6 15.7 7.9 112.9 69.8 45.4 3.4 7.5 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.1 16.2 12.2 110.7 69.0 48.3 5.0 9.1 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.1 18.7 9.1 128.9 73.3 47.6 4.0 8.2 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.7 14.4 11.5 100.5 65.3 46.5 4.5 8.7 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 4.3 18.2 8.8 121.5 72.1 46.9 4.8 9.0 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 4.0 16.2 9.4 120.8 71.7 47.7 4.1 7.9 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 3.5 15.8 9.6 132.4 74.0 47.1 3.6 7.1 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 5.6 23.1 11.2 118.6 71.2 49.3 5.3 11.1 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.9 14.6 8.9 111.1 69.9 48.3 3.8 7.6 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 4.0 15.0 5.2 102.5 66.3 39.7 4.7 8.9 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.7 14.5 8.7 107.1 68.8 47.9 4.8 8.5 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 3.2 16.8 8.3 117.6 71.3 42.5 3.6 7.6 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.3 22.4 12.9 110.1 68.4 49.3 7.9 13.6 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.4 10.0 8.7 120.1 71.4 48.0 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------