***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 53.4 61.4 39.5 102.7 62.7 55.6 31.3 46.8 65.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 48.8 60.1 37.4 113.6 67.0 59.1 27.1 41.6 58.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 50.9 59.9 41.5 111.4 66.0 57.3 33.1 45.7 59.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 59.3 65.8 39.1 101.7 62.3 55.0 34.2 51.1 70.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 42.3 50.4 38.6 106.5 64.5 57.4 24.1 36.9 52.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 55.1 55.2 38.9 93.4 57.2 52.2 35.9 49.0 64.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 42.1 49.9 36.5 108.5 65.0 57.5 23.0 35.6 50.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 68.6 78.5 44.6 107.0 64.0 57.5 44.1 61.3 81.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 48.2 55.0 40.6 105.1 63.6 55.7 31.4 43.4 57.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 58.0 66.1 47.5 106.8 64.0 57.3 37.2 51.9 68.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 45.1 52.9 35.4 104.1 63.4 57.3 25.2 39.1 56.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 50.4 56.3 32.9 101.6 62.2 55.5 27.6 42.7 61.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 39.3 46.2 33.8 103.3 63.1 57.2 22.5 34.5 49.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 64.1 79.4 55.3 117.0 67.9 60.3 35.8 54.0 76.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 39.8 41.1 29.6 91.2 58.8 50.9 20.3 32.8 48.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 36.1 40.6 33.5 100.9 62.1 56.1 22.0 32.1 43.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 64.1 65.2 39.1 119.3 69.1 61.9 34.1 46.9 61.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 60.0 69.1 56.1 110.5 65.0 57.6 39.3 53.7 70.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 54.7 69.6 39.1 115.7 67.8 59.8 29.2 46.0 66.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 48.9 55.0 56.0 108.1 63.6 57.2 31.7 43.6 57.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 47.7 55.6 41.4 108.0 65.0 56.6 32.0 43.5 56.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 50.2 62.2 42.7 122.1 70.0 62.4 34.0 45.3 58.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 47.6 58.6 41.4 115.9 67.8 60.2 28.9 41.8 56.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 59.4 71.7 50.9 114.1 66.8 58.6 36.6 52.2 70.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 52.4 60.3 44.8 107.0 64.5 58.1 33.1 46.5 61.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 43.1 49.8 28.0 105.8 64.1 56.3 25.6 37.6 51.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 55.1 64.3 44.3 106.3 64.0 57.6 32.3 48.1 67.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 48.4 50.5 34.1 94.1 59.6 52.2 27.0 41.0 58.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 77.1 88.5 59.3 112.7 65.8 58.5 53.0 69.9 88.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 42.4 50.9 38.0 110.1 65.6 57.8 24.2 36.5 51.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------