***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2012.-22.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 9999.0 16.1 18.8 0.7 63.0 62.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 91 9 100 15.6 15.2 17.8 -0.2 46.1 46.2 14.4 15.5 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 17.8 18.4 18.5 0.6 60.7 59.9 16.5 17.6 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 13.5 13.3 16.2 0.0 50.7 50.4 11.9 13.2 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 14.0 13.8 16.3 0.0 50.9 50.6 12.7 13.8 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 13.1 12.9 14.3 0.0 50.4 50.4 12.0 12.9 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 16.0 15.9 18.2 0.0 50.1 50.0 14.8 15.9 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 8.6 8.2 13.9 -0.1 47.7 47.8 7.3 8.3 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 15.4 15.7 17.0 0.4 58.9 57.8 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 15.2 15.0 14.9 0.0 49.5 49.4 14.0 15.0 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 15.0 14.6 15.7 -0.1 47.3 47.3 13.8 14.7 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 13.0 12.8 14.9 0.0 50.9 50.7 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 14.2 13.8 14.7 -0.1 46.9 47.1 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 15.9 15.4 16.2 -0.2 45.1 45.3 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 16.6 16.8 18.1 0.3 57.5 56.5 15.7 16.5 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 15.6 15.3 15.5 0.0 48.9 48.8 14.3 15.3 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 16.9 16.1 17.1 -0.5 40.5 41.0 15.6 16.6 17.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 13.5 12.9 13.6 -0.3 44.0 44.4 12.3 13.2 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 91 9 100 15.7 15.6 18.0 0.0 50.8 50.6 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.5 8.7 11.4 -0.4 40.1 40.9 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 15.1 15.3 18.0 0.3 56.4 55.7 14.0 15.0 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 15.4 14.8 17.4 -0.4 43.2 43.5 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 91 9 100 15.0 15.3 18.1 0.4 57.7 57.1 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 15.7 15.4 16.0 -0.1 48.6 48.6 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 90 10 100 15.2 15.1 17.2 0.1 51.5 51.3 13.9 15.0 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 14.2 14.3 14.4 0.3 55.9 55.0 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 15.5 15.6 17.8 0.3 54.9 54.4 13.9 15.2 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 14.2 14.1 17.0 0.1 52.6 52.1 13.0 14.0 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 13.0 12.0 12.8 -0.4 40.2 40.9 11.5 12.6 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 93 7 100 16.1 16.1 18.4 0.2 53.1 52.7 14.8 15.9 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------