***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2012.-22.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 45 55 100 9999.0 30.0 29.8 1.4 69.1 67.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 29.2 30.1 29.5 1.1 63.5 61.8 27.4 28.9 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 30.6 30.9 29.9 1.6 70.4 68.1 27.4 29.0 30.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 22.6 23.8 27.7 1.3 67.2 65.7 20.8 22.3 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 46 54 100 31.2 31.5 28.2 1.5 69.2 67.4 28.1 29.7 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 29.9 30.2 26.0 1.9 75.1 72.9 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 29.2 29.8 29.2 0.8 60.5 59.2 27.4 28.9 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 18.6 18.9 26.1 1.6 70.4 68.6 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 44 56 100 30.6 31.1 29.0 1.7 71.8 69.6 27.5 29.0 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 30.2 30.7 27.1 1.7 71.5 69.5 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 30.7 31.1 27.8 1.6 70.5 68.7 27.6 29.2 30.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 29.8 30.1 27.2 1.6 71.3 69.4 26.7 28.2 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 31.3 31.7 27.5 1.9 74.1 72.2 28.0 29.5 30.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 29.1 29.9 27.7 1.0 63.8 62.2 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 30.5 31.5 29.5 1.2 66.6 65.0 28.9 30.2 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 32.0 32.3 27.8 1.7 72.2 70.3 28.8 30.3 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 28.7 28.7 28.5 0.4 55.0 54.4 26.8 28.3 29.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 29.3 29.4 25.9 1.4 68.3 66.5 26.5 27.9 29.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 28.8 30.0 29.7 1.4 67.5 65.4 27.0 28.4 29.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 25.0 25.2 24.1 1.6 70.2 68.4 22.0 23.5 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 47 53 100 30.4 30.6 29.5 1.4 67.6 65.8 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 29.3 29.3 28.4 0.5 56.0 55.3 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 30.1 30.6 29.7 1.7 71.8 69.3 27.1 28.6 30.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 45 55 100 29.9 29.9 27.7 1.2 66.5 64.7 27.0 28.4 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 29.7 30.5 28.2 1.0 62.8 61.4 27.8 29.3 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 30.8 30.9 27.1 1.7 72.7 70.7 27.9 29.2 30.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 29.0 29.7 28.6 0.9 62.2 60.8 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 30.5 31.5 28.4 1.2 67.1 65.5 28.9 30.2 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 24.6 24.6 25.0 1.3 66.6 65.0 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 29.0 30.2 29.8 1.3 66.3 64.4 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------