***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2012.-29.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 9999.0 30.9 31.2 2.1 76.2 70.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 30.4 30.9 31.2 2.1 75.4 70.0 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 30.4 31.0 31.2 2.2 77.2 71.3 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 24.1 24.5 29.6 1.7 72.9 68.0 21.1 22.5 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 31.3 31.7 29.5 1.9 74.5 69.2 28.0 29.5 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 30.0 30.9 27.6 2.2 80.1 72.8 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 30.1 30.4 31.0 2.0 74.2 69.1 27.5 28.7 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 19.4 19.9 27.8 2.0 76.9 70.5 16.5 17.8 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 30.7 31.3 29.8 2.0 76.3 70.4 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 30.6 31.3 28.4 2.0 76.5 70.3 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 31.0 31.7 29.2 2.1 77.9 71.6 27.6 29.1 30.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 30.2 31.0 29.1 2.1 78.2 71.7 26.9 28.4 29.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 31.2 32.0 28.7 2.2 78.7 72.3 28.1 29.5 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 30.2 30.4 28.8 1.7 72.0 67.1 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 31.7 32.2 30.4 1.9 76.9 71.0 28.9 30.1 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 32.0 32.7 29.1 2.1 77.8 71.5 28.7 30.2 31.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 29.7 29.9 30.5 1.7 71.3 66.8 27.2 28.3 29.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 29.6 30.0 27.4 1.9 74.9 69.1 26.7 28.0 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 29.9 30.4 31.3 2.2 76.5 70.7 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 25.6 26.0 25.3 1.7 73.9 67.9 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 30.8 31.2 30.6 2.0 75.2 69.8 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 30.1 30.3 30.3 1.6 70.6 66.2 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 30.0 30.7 30.9 2.1 77.0 71.0 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 30.0 30.5 29.1 1.9 75.2 69.6 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 30.9 31.3 29.6 1.9 74.5 69.4 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 30.9 31.4 28.7 1.9 75.2 69.8 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 30.2 30.5 30.2 1.9 74.6 69.5 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 31.6 32.0 29.9 1.7 74.1 68.8 28.9 30.1 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 25.0 25.4 26.3 1.8 73.5 67.8 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 30.2 30.7 31.4 2.2 76.5 70.9 27.5 28.7 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------