***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-05.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 31.9 32.0 2.2 77.4 71.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 30.8 31.5 32.1 2.2 77.3 71.2 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 31.0 31.9 32.2 2.4 79.2 72.4 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 24.3 24.8 30.5 1.8 74.6 68.8 21.7 22.9 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 31.7 32.4 30.4 2.1 76.3 70.1 28.9 30.3 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 30.3 31.0 28.1 2.0 77.2 70.8 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 30.7 31.3 31.8 2.0 75.8 70.1 28.1 29.3 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 19.5 20.1 28.7 2.2 77.2 70.7 17.1 18.2 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 31.2 32.0 30.7 2.3 78.2 71.7 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 30.9 31.7 29.4 2.3 78.0 71.3 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 31.2 32.2 30.1 2.3 78.9 72.2 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 30.4 31.2 29.8 2.2 77.8 71.4 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 31.5 32.2 29.3 2.1 76.7 70.6 28.9 30.2 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 30.5 31.1 29.9 2.1 75.9 69.7 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 32.0 32.7 31.2 2.0 78.4 71.9 29.5 30.7 31.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 32.2 33.0 29.8 2.1 77.3 70.9 29.6 30.8 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 30.5 30.9 31.4 2.0 75.5 70.2 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 29.7 30.3 28.4 2.2 77.1 70.4 27.2 28.4 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 30.5 31.2 32.2 2.3 78.6 72.2 27.8 29.1 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 26.0 26.4 26.2 1.9 74.6 68.5 23.3 24.5 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 31.1 31.9 31.6 2.2 77.4 71.2 28.5 29.8 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 30.8 31.3 31.4 2.0 76.0 70.5 28.1 29.4 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 30.6 31.4 32.0 2.4 79.6 72.8 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 30.3 31.0 30.1 2.3 78.1 71.3 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 31.3 31.9 30.5 2.0 75.9 69.7 28.7 29.9 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 31.2 31.5 29.3 1.7 73.4 68.2 28.5 29.7 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 30.8 31.4 31.1 2.0 75.7 69.6 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 31.8 32.3 30.7 1.8 75.3 69.3 29.5 30.6 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 25.3 25.9 27.3 2.1 75.6 69.1 22.7 23.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 30.8 31.6 32.3 2.3 77.9 71.5 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------