***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2012.-29.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 9999.0 11.0 6.8 87.6 62.1 37.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 3.1 10.4 7.3 90.3 62.6 39.6 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 3.0 11.2 7.1 80.1 59.1 38.1 2.7 7.3 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 3.7 11.5 6.3 68.8 56.4 35.8 3.9 8.7 16.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.8 8.0 6.8 69.6 57.7 36.6 2.7 6.0 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 3.7 9.3 8.2 66.7 54.8 33.8 3.6 7.8 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 4.2 12.9 7.4 89.6 62.3 39.6 4.0 8.3 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 5.7 12.4 6.6 58.4 51.7 33.8 5.7 11.7 20.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 2.7 8.3 7.0 67.3 56.7 36.1 2.3 6.1 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 3.8 10.7 7.7 64.7 54.6 35.5 3.5 8.6 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 2.8 8.1 5.8 65.9 56.4 34.7 2.7 6.3 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 2.8 6.9 4.8 54.9 50.7 30.9 2.6 6.6 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 2.3 5.7 6.0 60.1 52.4 31.4 2.4 5.1 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 5.2 17.8 10.0 87.1 61.9 41.5 4.6 10.8 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 2.3 5.6 4.7 59.0 50.8 32.3 2.4 5.5 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 2.1 5.4 6.0 64.3 54.4 31.9 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 5.0 15.4 7.3 86.8 62.0 39.9 4.7 10.0 17.8 29 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 4.5 12.9 9.3 67.4 54.8 36.6 4.6 10.3 19.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 4.3 14.8 7.4 91.7 62.9 39.7 3.9 8.9 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 3.9 10.0 10.3 71.9 56.4 39.9 4.2 8.0 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 3.5 10.9 6.5 74.2 58.6 36.4 3.7 7.9 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 4.7 16.6 7.3 88.7 62.2 39.3 5.2 10.7 18.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.9 14.0 8.0 94.7 63.7 40.4 3.4 8.0 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.2 12.4 8.8 73.8 57.1 38.2 3.8 9.0 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 3.7 12.1 7.3 77.5 59.3 38.7 3.8 8.2 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 3.1 7.7 4.6 57.6 51.1 31.0 3.5 7.3 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 3.1 12.1 7.7 86.5 61.4 38.6 3.3 7.7 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 3.3 9.9 5.7 66.7 54.8 33.1 3.7 8.1 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 7.2 18.6 10.1 71.4 56.3 38.6 7.6 14.9 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 4.0 13.3 7.2 87.7 61.4 38.4 4.1 8.8 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------