***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-05.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 9999.0 5.5 3.1 44.7 44.7 27.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 3.9 9.4 4.1 56.9 50.7 30.4 4.3 9.2 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 3.1 6.3 3.3 48.0 45.7 28.2 3.7 7.4 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 3.0 8.7 4.1 66.6 54.7 32.3 3.3 7.2 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 2.9 9.1 4.5 72.8 57.4 31.5 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 3.3 10.2 6.3 80.5 59.7 37.2 3.5 7.3 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 3.0 7.1 4.2 55.7 50.4 30.9 3.2 6.9 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 3.7 16.0 6.0 93.3 64.0 34.6 4.0 9.2 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 3.3 8.8 4.4 67.0 54.6 28.7 3.9 7.6 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 4.3 12.5 5.8 79.4 59.5 32.0 4.8 9.2 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 2.7 10.4 4.6 88.8 62.7 32.7 2.7 6.3 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 2.5 11.5 4.5 99.8 65.7 33.2 2.8 6.4 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 2.5 9.9 5.3 96.2 64.8 35.1 2.7 5.9 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 2.8 7.7 5.5 62.8 52.4 34.3 2.6 6.8 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 2.0 4.8 2.6 56.3 48.9 30.0 2.2 5.0 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 2.8 10.8 4.8 89.8 63.0 33.8 3.5 6.9 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 3.7 9.1 4.2 57.7 52.0 31.9 4.2 8.5 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 3.4 10.4 6.8 73.4 57.8 34.7 3.6 7.8 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 3.5 8.6 4.0 57.1 50.2 30.3 3.7 8.4 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 4.7 13.4 9.0 95.2 64.6 40.1 5.2 8.9 13.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 2.2 6.0 3.4 56.6 49.8 28.1 2.7 6.0 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 2.9 6.8 4.1 57.7 51.5 32.4 3.3 6.5 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 2.4 6.3 4.1 57.9 50.1 30.5 2.6 6.2 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 3.5 7.8 5.0 57.9 51.1 31.8 4.0 7.5 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 2.0 6.1 4.3 55.5 50.2 30.9 2.4 6.1 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 3.0 12.1 4.3 106.9 67.0 35.9 3.7 7.0 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 2.4 6.6 4.0 48.4 46.9 29.0 3.2 7.7 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 2.4 7.3 3.8 69.3 55.7 32.5 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 5.2 16.2 7.3 79.2 59.7 36.5 5.6 11.5 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 2.7 6.2 3.8 52.1 48.3 28.8 3.3 6.6 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------