***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2012.-12.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 9999.0 8.6 3.0 66.2 53.0 28.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 3.0 8.4 3.7 61.9 52.7 28.0 3.8 7.6 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 2.4 7.2 3.2 64.4 52.4 28.4 3.0 6.5 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 4.7 16.7 3.4 102.9 65.4 37.0 4.8 9.8 17.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 2.6 9.1 3.3 91.4 61.2 33.6 3.2 6.2 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 3.9 13.5 4.7 84.8 61.8 37.8 4.2 8.8 15.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 76 24 0 100 2.0 5.9 3.9 64.7 53.0 27.9 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 5.4 17.3 4.4 91.3 62.5 36.1 6.8 12.1 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 3.5 10.8 3.4 80.7 57.4 30.1 4.3 8.5 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 4.7 13.9 4.3 82.5 59.6 33.7 5.8 10.4 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 4.2 12.7 3.0 88.6 59.8 33.8 5.5 9.6 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 3.1 11.1 3.0 93.3 61.4 33.8 4.0 7.6 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 2.7 10.6 3.3 90.8 62.0 36.9 2.7 6.5 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 3.8 11.1 4.9 74.4 58.1 31.6 4.6 8.7 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 3.2 14.2 3.2 106.3 65.7 35.5 3.6 7.9 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 3.2 9.2 2.8 84.2 59.0 36.3 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 3.1 8.8 3.6 63.0 52.4 29.1 4.0 8.1 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 4.5 12.4 5.4 80.3 59.3 34.1 5.3 9.4 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 2.7 8.0 3.5 61.6 52.4 28.0 3.4 7.3 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 3.9 12.2 6.6 91.2 62.9 38.4 4.3 8.2 13.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 77 23 0 100 3.3 10.6 2.9 74.8 55.2 28.1 4.6 8.9 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 4.0 8.8 3.4 57.9 50.3 28.7 4.8 8.8 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 2.7 8.0 3.6 66.0 54.3 29.3 3.5 6.8 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 4.5 14.0 4.5 73.3 56.6 30.9 5.7 11.2 19.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 3.3 10.2 3.8 82.0 58.9 32.6 3.8 7.6 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 3.3 10.6 2.6 86.2 60.3 36.4 3.5 7.3 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 3.3 8.7 3.8 71.6 55.7 31.1 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 3.0 12.0 3.1 102.7 64.8 37.4 2.9 6.7 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 6.3 17.2 6.0 86.8 61.5 34.5 7.4 12.5 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 2.3 5.8 3.5 60.7 52.1 27.4 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------