***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2018.-22.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 97 3 100 15.7 15.6 18.2 0.0 49.8 49.8 14.6 15.6 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 97 3 100 15.5 15.4 18.1 0.0 49.3 49.3 14.4 15.5 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 95 5 100 17.7 17.6 18.3 0.0 49.2 49.2 16.5 17.6 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 94 6 100 13.4 12.9 15.8 -0.2 45.1 45.2 11.9 13.2 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 91 9 100 13.9 13.4 16.1 -0.3 44.5 44.7 12.7 13.8 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 93 7 100 13.0 12.8 13.5 -0.1 47.7 47.8 12.0 12.9 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 96 4 100 16.0 15.7 18.2 -0.1 47.7 47.8 14.8 15.9 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 6.9 7.1 12.7 -0.9 31.1 32.0 7.3 8.3 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 92 8 100 15.3 15.1 16.4 -0.1 48.9 49.0 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.3 14.3 14.0 -0.6 37.6 38.2 14.0 15.0 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 14.9 14.2 15.5 -0.4 40.2 40.7 13.8 14.7 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 11.6 11.7 13.7 -1.0 29.2 30.3 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 14.2 13.7 14.5 -0.2 46.5 46.8 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 93 7 100 15.8 15.8 16.2 0.1 51.6 51.5 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 92 8 100 16.6 16.8 18.0 0.3 56.4 56.0 15.7 16.5 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 15.6 14.9 15.1 -0.3 43.0 43.4 14.3 15.3 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 97 3 100 16.7 16.9 18.3 0.3 55.0 54.9 15.6 16.6 17.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 13.5 12.8 13.6 -0.4 41.8 42.1 12.3 13.2 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 96 4 100 15.6 15.4 18.0 -0.1 47.4 47.5 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.5 8.5 11.4 -0.6 36.5 37.0 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 95 5 100 15.0 15.0 17.6 0.0 50.2 50.2 14.0 15.0 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 97 3 100 15.2 15.4 18.3 0.2 53.2 53.1 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 94 6 100 15.0 14.7 17.8 -0.2 46.7 46.8 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 92 8 100 15.6 15.6 16.3 0.1 52.1 52.0 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 15.2 14.5 16.9 -0.4 42.3 42.6 13.9 15.0 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 14.2 13.9 13.5 -0.2 46.6 46.9 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 96 4 100 15.3 15.1 17.6 -0.1 47.8 47.9 13.9 15.2 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 14.1 14.1 16.5 0.1 52.0 51.7 13.0 14.0 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 13.0 11.8 12.6 -0.6 37.4 38.0 11.5 12.6 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 95 5 100 16.0 15.7 18.2 -0.2 46.5 46.6 14.8 15.9 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------