***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2018.-29.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 16.1 16.6 19.6 0.9 66.3 64.4 15.1 15.9 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 46 54 100 16.6 16.7 19.5 0.9 67.1 65.5 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 18.1 18.6 19.7 0.7 63.9 62.4 17.1 17.9 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 44 56 100 14.6 14.7 17.3 0.9 68.4 66.7 12.6 13.6 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 14.4 14.8 17.3 0.6 63.7 62.5 13.5 14.2 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 13.9 13.9 14.9 0.7 66.8 65.3 12.6 13.2 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 16.4 17.0 19.7 1.0 67.5 65.8 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 9.3 9.4 14.5 0.3 57.2 56.5 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 15.7 16.1 17.4 0.6 63.0 61.7 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 15.6 15.8 15.5 0.4 59.2 58.3 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 15.3 15.6 16.7 0.5 61.7 60.5 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 13.6 13.7 15.6 0.4 59.4 58.5 12.7 13.4 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 14.6 14.9 15.4 0.5 63.1 61.5 13.8 14.4 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 16.4 16.7 17.2 0.6 63.4 62.3 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 17.7 17.8 19.0 1.0 71.7 69.5 16.0 16.8 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 44 56 100 16.4 16.3 16.3 0.6 64.6 63.1 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 17.5 17.6 19.6 1.2 72.0 69.9 16.0 16.7 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 14.1 14.3 14.8 0.4 60.2 59.2 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 16.0 16.5 19.5 0.8 65.4 64.0 15.1 15.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 10.1 10.2 12.6 0.3 57.5 56.7 9.3 9.9 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 15.6 15.8 18.6 0.5 61.1 60.0 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 16.3 16.4 19.5 1.1 70.8 68.9 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 15.5 16.0 19.3 0.8 65.3 63.9 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 16.2 16.5 17.1 0.6 62.6 61.4 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 15.5 15.9 18.4 0.7 63.8 62.3 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 15.1 15.0 15.0 0.7 65.7 64.1 13.8 14.4 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 15.5 16.1 19.0 0.9 66.2 64.4 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 47 53 100 15.1 15.2 17.6 0.8 67.7 65.8 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 13.4 13.6 14.0 0.3 57.8 57.0 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 16.3 16.8 19.7 0.8 65.6 64.0 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------