***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2018.-12.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 16.8 16.6 19.5 0.8 66.5 61.9 15.0 15.8 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 16.7 16.7 19.5 1.0 70.3 64.0 14.7 15.6 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 18.9 18.7 19.7 0.8 66.5 62.0 17.1 17.9 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 14.4 14.1 17.0 0.6 63.4 60.5 12.5 13.4 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.8 16.5 0.3 57.8 56.8 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 14.2 14.1 15.0 0.6 66.2 63.2 12.8 13.5 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 16.8 16.9 19.7 1.1 70.7 64.1 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.6 14.5 0.5 61.0 58.7 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 16.0 16.1 16.6 0.4 59.7 58.3 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.9 16.0 15.2 0.4 60.6 58.6 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.6 16.1 0.4 59.8 58.1 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.9 15.2 0.5 61.6 59.5 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.9 15.0 14.6 0.4 60.3 59.3 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.7 16.8 0.5 62.1 59.7 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 17.5 17.5 18.5 0.8 68.5 64.4 16.0 16.7 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.5 15.5 0.4 60.8 59.5 15.3 16.0 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 17.2 17.3 19.4 1.1 72.4 65.5 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.6 14.4 0.5 63.6 60.7 13.2 14.0 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 16.6 16.6 19.5 0.9 68.8 63.2 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.4 12.2 0.5 62.7 60.0 9.2 9.9 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 15.8 15.9 18.2 0.5 60.6 58.9 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 16.1 16.2 19.3 1.1 72.3 65.6 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 16.1 15.9 19.1 0.8 66.5 62.2 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 16.7 16.5 16.6 0.6 64.3 61.2 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 16.0 16.2 17.8 0.6 61.6 59.1 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 15.5 15.4 14.6 0.7 66.5 63.4 14.1 14.8 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 17.1 16.8 18.6 0.7 65.1 61.0 14.7 15.8 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 15.4 15.2 17.3 0.7 65.1 62.0 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 13.9 13.6 13.8 0.5 62.6 59.9 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 17.0 17.0 19.7 1.0 69.4 63.4 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------