***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2018.-12.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 16.5 16.5 19.3 0.7 70.5 67.6 15.4 15.9 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 16.5 16.6 19.3 0.8 73.0 69.4 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 18.5 18.5 19.5 0.6 68.6 66.0 17.4 17.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 14.1 14.1 16.9 0.5 67.2 65.0 13.0 13.5 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 14.5 14.7 16.8 0.3 61.5 60.2 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 46 54 100 13.7 13.7 14.7 0.5 67.5 65.4 12.9 13.3 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 16.7 16.8 19.5 0.8 72.1 68.7 15.6 16.1 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 9.1 9.1 14.1 0.1 54.9 54.4 8.5 9.0 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 15.7 16.0 16.9 0.4 63.8 62.1 15.1 15.6 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 15.6 15.7 15.1 0.2 57.9 57.1 15.0 15.4 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 15.3 15.4 16.2 0.3 60.3 59.0 14.6 15.1 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 13.5 13.4 15.0 0.1 54.5 54.0 12.9 13.3 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 14.6 14.8 14.8 0.3 62.1 60.4 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 16.6 16.6 16.8 0.5 67.0 65.0 15.6 16.1 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 17.5 17.6 18.6 0.8 75.8 72.5 16.2 16.8 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 16.0 16.2 15.7 0.4 62.7 61.0 15.3 15.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 17.2 17.4 19.3 1.1 78.4 74.1 16.1 16.6 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 14.0 14.1 14.4 0.3 61.6 60.2 13.2 13.8 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 16.4 16.4 19.2 0.7 70.6 67.5 15.4 15.8 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 9.9 10.0 12.2 0.2 57.4 56.7 9.3 9.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 15.9 15.8 18.3 0.4 64.3 62.6 14.9 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 16.0 16.2 19.3 1.0 77.1 73.2 14.9 15.4 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 15.8 15.8 19.0 0.6 68.4 66.0 14.8 15.3 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 16.4 16.4 16.8 0.5 67.4 65.3 15.5 15.9 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 16.0 15.9 17.9 0.5 64.1 62.4 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 14.9 14.9 14.5 0.5 67.0 64.9 14.1 14.5 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 16.3 16.3 18.6 0.6 69.0 66.4 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 15.0 15.1 17.3 0.6 69.9 67.4 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 13.2 13.3 13.7 0.2 58.0 57.2 12.6 13.1 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 16.7 16.8 19.5 0.7 70.5 67.3 15.6 16.1 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------