***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2018.-22.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 27.2 27.3 28.1 -1.4 31.3 32.3 27.5 29.0 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 27.2 27.3 28.3 -1.5 31.4 32.3 27.4 28.9 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 26.5 26.8 27.8 -1.8 27.4 28.4 27.4 29.0 30.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 19.8 19.9 24.7 -2.0 24.0 25.1 20.8 22.3 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 86 14 0 100 26.6 26.9 25.4 -2.3 22.0 23.1 28.1 29.7 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 79 21 0 100 25.9 26.0 22.8 -2.1 22.7 24.0 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 29.4 27.6 28.5 -1.2 34.9 35.6 27.4 28.9 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 89 11 0 100 14.5 14.5 22.8 -2.6 19.1 20.4 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 79 21 0 100 26.2 26.6 26.5 -2.0 24.6 25.6 27.5 29.0 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 86 14 0 100 25.9 26.1 24.0 -2.4 21.7 22.7 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 86 14 0 100 26.1 26.4 25.5 -2.4 21.5 22.6 27.6 29.2 30.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 84 16 0 100 25.4 25.4 24.1 -2.4 20.2 21.5 26.7 28.2 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 27.0 27.0 25.0 -2.1 22.6 24.0 28.0 29.5 30.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 26.4 26.6 26.2 -1.9 26.1 27.0 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 28.3 28.6 27.8 -1.4 29.5 30.4 28.9 30.2 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 82 18 0 100 27.5 27.6 25.0 -2.2 21.9 23.2 28.8 30.3 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 28.6 27.5 28.7 -0.7 40.6 41.1 26.8 28.3 29.7 29 Palic 37000G16 84 16 0 100 25.3 25.5 23.1 -2.4 22.1 23.0 26.5 27.9 29.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 26.4 26.5 28.0 -1.7 28.5 29.5 27.0 28.4 29.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 20.6 20.6 20.7 -2.6 18.9 20.2 22.0 23.5 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 80 20 0 100 26.3 26.8 27.3 -2.0 25.0 25.9 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 29.2 27.9 28.4 -0.8 39.6 40.1 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 26.5 26.7 27.8 -1.7 28.6 29.6 27.1 28.6 30.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 77 23 0 100 25.9 26.1 25.8 -2.1 24.3 25.3 27.0 28.4 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 26.8 27.1 26.4 -1.9 25.8 26.9 27.8 29.3 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 81 19 0 100 26.9 27.0 23.6 -2.3 21.5 23.1 27.9 29.2 30.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 26.7 26.9 27.4 -1.5 30.5 31.5 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 28.0 28.2 25.8 -1.8 25.1 26.1 28.9 30.2 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 85 15 0 100 20.3 20.5 22.3 -2.4 21.2 22.2 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 26.8 26.9 28.2 -1.6 29.9 30.8 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------