***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2018.-29.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 29.4 29.1 29.9 0.1 50.7 50.4 27.8 29.0 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 29.4 29.1 30.0 0.1 51.2 50.8 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 29.3 28.6 29.8 -0.2 47.4 47.6 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 22.9 22.3 27.3 -0.2 47.8 47.9 21.1 22.5 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 30.0 28.8 27.5 -0.6 42.3 43.2 28.0 29.5 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 28.7 27.9 25.2 -0.4 45.0 45.2 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 29.1 29.0 30.2 0.3 54.0 53.3 27.5 28.7 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 18.3 16.9 25.2 -0.9 38.4 39.4 16.5 17.8 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 29.5 28.4 28.0 -0.6 42.3 43.2 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 29.4 28.0 26.1 -0.8 40.1 41.1 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 29.6 28.4 27.5 -0.6 42.2 42.9 27.6 29.1 30.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 29.0 27.6 26.6 -0.8 40.2 41.0 26.9 28.4 29.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 29.9 28.8 26.8 -0.6 41.9 42.6 28.1 29.5 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 29.1 28.1 27.6 -0.5 43.6 44.4 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 30.5 30.4 29.5 0.2 53.3 52.7 28.9 30.1 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 30.7 29.6 27.2 -0.5 43.1 43.6 28.7 30.2 31.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 28.7 29.0 30.3 0.7 58.9 57.5 27.2 28.3 29.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 28.5 27.2 25.3 -0.8 40.1 41.1 26.7 28.0 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 28.9 28.4 29.8 -0.1 48.7 48.7 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 24.5 22.9 23.0 -1.0 37.0 38.2 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 29.6 28.5 29.0 -0.5 43.2 44.0 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 29.1 29.3 30.1 0.6 58.2 56.8 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 29.1 28.4 29.5 -0.2 47.7 48.0 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 28.9 27.8 27.5 -0.6 42.8 43.6 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 29.6 28.9 28.2 -0.3 46.0 46.4 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 29.6 28.9 26.7 -0.3 46.0 46.1 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 29.0 28.7 29.1 0.0 50.3 50.0 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 30.5 30.0 28.0 -0.1 48.4 48.4 28.9 30.1 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 24.0 22.5 24.4 -0.9 39.1 40.2 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 29.1 28.7 30.0 0.0 49.9 49.7 27.5 28.7 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------