***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2018.-05.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 30.2 30.2 30.6 0.5 56.3 54.2 28.4 29.7 30.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 29.9 30.3 30.9 0.9 61.4 57.6 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 30.1 29.9 30.6 0.3 54.2 52.4 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 23.4 23.0 28.4 0.1 51.0 50.3 21.7 22.9 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 30.8 29.9 28.1 -0.4 44.9 45.3 28.9 30.3 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 29.4 28.4 25.5 -0.5 43.0 43.7 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 29.8 30.3 31.1 1.0 63.4 59.2 28.1 29.3 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 16.9 17.6 26.0 -0.8 40.1 41.1 17.1 18.2 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 30.3 29.4 28.2 -0.4 44.9 45.3 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 28.0 28.9 26.7 -0.6 42.3 42.9 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 30.3 29.3 27.7 -0.5 43.4 44.1 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 29.6 28.5 27.4 -0.7 41.1 42.1 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 28.8 29.4 26.6 -0.8 39.6 41.1 28.9 30.2 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 29.7 29.3 28.0 0.1 51.0 49.6 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 31.1 31.1 29.6 0.5 56.2 54.7 29.5 30.7 31.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 31.4 30.4 27.5 -0.5 43.6 44.5 29.6 30.8 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 29.4 30.3 31.1 1.4 68.1 62.6 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 27.0 28.0 26.2 -0.5 43.9 44.0 27.2 28.4 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 29.5 29.7 30.8 0.7 59.5 56.2 27.8 29.1 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 22.9 23.8 23.5 -0.8 39.6 40.4 23.3 24.5 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 30.3 29.6 29.4 -0.2 47.4 47.3 28.5 29.8 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 29.8 30.7 31.0 1.5 68.8 63.2 28.1 29.4 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 29.6 29.6 30.4 0.5 56.6 54.1 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 29.5 28.8 27.9 -0.2 48.0 47.3 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 30.4 30.0 28.6 0.0 50.2 49.7 28.7 29.9 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 30.2 29.5 27.6 -0.2 47.8 47.6 28.5 29.7 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 29.9 29.9 29.6 0.4 55.6 53.8 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 31.0 30.6 28.6 0.0 50.6 50.1 29.5 30.6 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 22.5 23.4 25.1 -0.6 42.7 43.0 22.7 23.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 29.9 30.0 30.8 0.7 59.3 56.1 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------