***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2018.-12.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 29.6 29.7 30.8 0.7 59.9 56.5 28.0 29.1 30.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 27.7 29.8 31.0 1.0 62.9 58.2 27.9 29.0 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 29.4 29.5 30.9 0.7 59.1 55.9 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 22.4 22.4 28.8 0.5 57.5 55.3 20.7 21.9 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 30.0 29.7 28.5 0.1 51.8 51.1 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 28.4 28.3 26.1 0.3 55.0 53.8 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 27.5 29.6 31.0 1.1 63.8 58.9 27.7 28.7 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.8 17.5 26.6 0.1 51.0 50.5 16.4 17.4 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 29.3 29.0 28.6 0.1 52.0 51.3 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.1 28.8 27.2 0.1 51.1 50.5 27.6 28.7 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 29.5 29.2 28.2 0.2 52.6 51.5 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 28.6 28.4 28.0 0.2 53.1 52.1 27.1 28.2 29.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 29.8 29.5 27.3 0.1 51.4 51.0 28.3 29.4 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 27.5 29.0 28.1 0.3 53.6 52.4 27.7 28.8 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 30.1 30.5 30.0 0.9 62.9 59.6 28.7 29.8 30.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 30.5 30.4 28.1 0.3 54.2 53.0 28.9 30.1 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 29.5 29.3 30.9 1.2 65.7 60.3 27.2 28.3 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 28.2 27.9 26.7 0.2 52.0 51.3 26.8 27.8 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 27.3 29.4 30.9 1.0 62.1 57.8 27.5 28.6 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 24.1 23.7 24.1 0.0 49.6 49.7 22.7 23.7 24.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 29.5 29.2 29.7 0.2 52.9 51.9 27.9 29.0 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 29.3 30.0 30.8 1.3 66.5 61.1 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 29.1 29.3 30.6 0.8 60.4 56.8 27.7 28.7 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 27.2 28.6 28.3 0.3 53.6 52.4 27.4 28.4 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 29.8 29.5 28.8 0.3 53.7 52.5 28.2 29.3 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 29.5 29.8 28.3 0.7 60.5 58.1 28.0 29.1 30.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 29.3 29.3 29.8 0.6 58.1 55.4 27.8 28.8 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 30.0 30.2 29.1 0.7 59.0 56.6 28.5 29.6 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 23.6 23.2 25.6 0.1 50.7 50.5 22.2 23.2 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 27.6 29.6 30.9 0.9 61.9 57.7 27.8 28.9 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------