***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2018.-12.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 29.5 29.2 29.8 0.0 49.5 49.1 28.5 29.2 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 29.4 29.2 30.1 0.1 52.4 51.4 28.4 29.1 29.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 28.1 28.9 29.8 -0.2 45.5 45.6 28.3 29.1 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 22.7 22.1 27.3 -0.4 42.9 43.6 21.6 22.4 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 28.6 29.0 27.4 -0.8 35.4 37.1 28.9 29.7 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 27.4 27.8 24.9 -0.6 37.1 38.2 27.6 28.4 29.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 29.1 29.1 30.2 0.3 55.7 54.3 28.2 28.9 29.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 16.6 16.9 25.1 -1.0 30.8 32.8 17.0 17.7 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 28.1 28.6 27.8 -0.7 36.8 38.3 28.4 29.2 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 27.8 28.1 26.0 -0.9 33.3 35.1 28.1 28.9 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 28.0 28.5 27.2 -0.8 34.8 36.5 28.4 29.3 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 27.3 27.7 26.5 -0.9 33.1 35.0 27.7 28.5 29.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 28.6 28.9 26.4 -0.9 33.8 35.5 28.8 29.6 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 27.9 28.4 27.5 -0.5 40.3 41.1 28.1 28.8 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 30.4 30.2 29.2 0.0 50.9 50.4 29.5 30.2 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 29.3 29.7 26.9 -0.7 36.2 37.7 29.5 30.3 31.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 28.7 29.0 30.3 0.6 61.9 58.9 27.7 28.5 29.2 29 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 27.0 27.4 25.3 -0.9 34.0 35.7 27.3 28.0 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 27.8 28.6 29.9 0.0 49.6 49.0 27.9 28.6 29.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 22.7 22.9 22.8 -1.1 29.0 31.1 23.1 23.9 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 28.2 28.7 28.8 -0.6 38.3 39.6 28.5 29.2 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 29.2 29.5 30.1 0.7 62.1 58.9 28.2 28.9 29.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 27.9 28.7 29.6 -0.1 47.6 47.4 28.1 28.8 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 27.6 28.1 27.4 -0.6 38.1 39.3 27.8 28.6 29.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 28.6 29.1 28.0 -0.5 41.0 42.1 28.7 29.5 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 28.4 28.9 26.6 -0.5 39.9 40.7 28.5 29.3 30.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 29.2 28.8 29.0 -0.1 48.0 47.9 28.2 28.9 29.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 30.4 29.9 27.9 -0.3 44.0 44.4 29.5 30.1 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 22.3 22.6 24.3 -1.0 32.1 33.9 22.7 23.4 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 29.2 28.9 30.0 0.0 50.3 49.7 28.2 28.9 29.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------