***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2018.-22.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 16.9 29.5 20.1 220.3 86.9 70.2 3.1 6.9 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 14.3 17.2 12.1 144.8 76.4 61.2 3.7 7.3 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 12.9 19.0 15.9 187.4 83.3 68.2 3.5 6.5 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.1 16.3 11.5 116.8 70.1 59.8 2.9 7.1 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 13.9 20.1 17.1 174.5 81.0 69.3 2.6 5.8 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 13.1 15.3 14.6 131.8 73.2 65.6 2.5 5.9 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 7.4 13.3 11.6 137.5 74.9 60.3 2.6 5.5 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 17.2 28.0 25.9 219.4 87.0 80.2 3.9 7.8 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 11.0 19.4 22.2 217.7 86.6 75.5 1.8 4.2 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 12.0 18.8 25.8 198.1 84.6 75.9 2.4 5.1 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 12.3 18.4 17.8 181.2 82.3 70.0 2.0 4.8 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 17.5 33.5 20.5 248.0 89.3 81.5 2.8 6.5 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 9.6 15.3 17.0 191.7 83.3 71.4 1.5 3.6 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 18.8 31.5 22.1 203.3 85.5 73.3 3.4 7.5 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.6 6.7 5.3 68.9 56.1 45.0 2.3 5.2 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 8.9 12.7 15.3 176.0 81.2 70.2 1.8 4.0 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.2 8.6 9.9 114.9 69.8 55.7 2.6 4.8 7.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 14.5 23.3 27.5 212.0 86.8 79.3 2.8 5.9 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 14.2 18.6 13.4 159.1 78.9 63.2 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 14.4 20.9 26.3 193.9 84.7 78.6 3.3 6.4 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 10.5 17.1 20.5 210.6 86.0 73.7 2.0 4.3 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.1 10.4 10.5 121.8 71.2 56.0 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 11.5 16.4 15.0 175.7 81.8 66.0 3.2 6.1 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 14.1 22.8 21.1 208.8 86.3 74.8 3.1 6.2 10.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 15.2 23.5 20.0 192.8 83.7 69.0 3.5 7.1 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 10.4 14.6 10.2 177.8 81.7 72.4 1.8 4.1 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 19.9 32.8 19.8 197.1 84.1 69.1 3.3 7.9 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 9.0 12.9 10.4 107.1 67.3 57.5 2.8 6.3 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 16 84 100 20.4 30.0 26.2 204.8 86.1 79.6 5.1 9.5 15.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 11.8 16.4 13.9 166.7 80.2 64.0 3.2 6.1 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------