***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2018.-29.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 20.9 33.8 21.7 186.0 83.1 66.3 3.0 7.6 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 14.3 20.8 17.8 170.9 81.0 64.0 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 19.1 36.5 23.7 205.9 85.8 70.8 2.7 7.3 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 22.1 37.5 21.6 205.7 85.6 70.7 3.9 8.7 16.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 13.7 21.6 20.4 188.5 83.3 67.2 2.7 6.0 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 17.1 26.1 21.7 179.1 82.4 66.8 3.6 7.8 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 17.1 22.6 16.2 153.1 77.9 62.5 4.0 8.3 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 25.2 32.9 19.1 159.8 79.1 64.4 5.7 11.7 20.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 14.9 24.0 20.3 172.5 81.2 62.9 2.3 6.1 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 21.4 31.4 21.7 168.9 80.4 65.7 3.5 8.6 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 14.8 22.7 21.5 182.4 82.6 70.7 2.7 6.3 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 17.2 26.0 17.5 172.4 81.3 66.7 2.6 6.6 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 11.3 17.9 18.0 183.6 82.8 68.0 2.4 5.1 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 25.9 38.7 23.8 172.1 81.3 63.5 4.6 10.8 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 12.9 23.4 19.0 217.8 86.8 69.4 2.4 5.5 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 9.5 13.3 18.2 172.6 81.2 65.3 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 13.9 25.9 15.6 146.8 76.9 57.4 4.7 10.0 17.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 23.3 34.8 23.0 163.7 79.9 64.5 4.6 10.3 19.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 19.9 31.4 19.0 177.7 82.2 64.8 3.9 8.9 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 15.9 20.3 21.5 154.2 78.4 66.1 4.2 8.0 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 17.0 25.7 20.4 177.0 81.8 64.4 3.7 7.9 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 14.7 26.9 15.6 143.5 76.2 58.5 5.2 10.7 18.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 18.3 29.8 20.9 179.6 82.5 66.2 3.4 8.0 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 21.6 36.4 24.2 181.9 82.9 66.9 3.8 9.0 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 19.1 32.0 24.1 193.2 84.3 66.4 3.8 8.2 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 15.6 22.4 15.7 173.1 81.5 69.3 3.5 7.3 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 18.3 29.9 24.2 190.8 83.9 68.2 3.3 7.7 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 18.6 29.9 18.7 197.3 84.4 68.1 3.7 8.1 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 29.8 43.6 26.0 175.1 81.7 69.5 7.6 14.9 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 19.3 28.4 19.2 179.3 82.3 66.8 4.1 8.8 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------