***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2018.-05.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 4.2 14.7 10.5 108.5 68.8 46.1 3.9 7.8 13.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 4.3 20.0 11.1 119.1 71.5 46.9 4.3 9.2 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 3.8 15.8 12.8 122.2 72.3 46.9 3.7 7.4 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.5 14.5 10.8 107.6 68.4 47.8 3.3 7.2 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.8 14.2 10.8 114.9 70.4 49.9 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.0 16.1 13.2 129.1 73.2 55.3 3.5 7.3 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.4 14.3 10.3 111.2 69.9 47.8 3.2 6.9 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.7 23.8 13.2 133.0 74.1 54.8 4.0 9.2 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.3 14.3 11.4 111.7 69.6 49.3 3.9 7.6 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.6 18.6 13.8 122.3 72.1 52.9 4.8 9.2 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.4 13.7 9.1 112.5 69.8 50.8 2.7 6.3 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.2 15.1 10.2 129.2 73.2 52.4 2.8 6.4 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.2 12.4 10.2 117.4 71.0 51.6 2.7 5.9 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 3.1 19.7 17.9 125.6 73.0 48.8 2.6 6.8 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.7 9.1 7.9 98.6 66.2 46.0 2.2 5.0 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.5 12.9 8.8 107.2 68.4 50.0 3.5 6.9 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 4.3 16.2 9.6 107.1 68.6 47.9 4.2 8.5 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.0 17.4 17.2 122.3 72.1 54.8 3.6 7.8 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 3.7 20.2 12.5 124.5 72.7 45.8 3.7 8.4 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 15.5 16.5 17.4 125.5 72.4 57.7 5.2 8.9 13.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 2.9 12.9 10.8 109.1 69.2 46.6 2.7 6.0 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.3 12.9 11.9 117.6 70.8 48.1 3.3 6.5 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 2.7 16.4 14.2 128.6 73.5 44.8 2.6 6.2 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.3 15.5 16.5 123.1 72.5 51.2 4.0 7.5 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.1 13.6 11.2 108.5 68.9 48.9 2.4 6.1 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.4 17.5 10.6 153.9 78.2 57.3 3.7 7.0 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.8 16.3 11.3 108.1 68.7 47.4 3.2 7.7 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.3 11.1 9.6 106.4 68.1 47.6 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 15.7 24.2 17.7 120.2 71.3 55.9 5.6 11.5 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 3.2 13.9 11.6 119.6 71.7 46.2 3.3 6.6 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------