***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2018.-12.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 3.2 9.4 7.0 71.9 57.3 36.1 3.3 7.1 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 3.3 9.8 6.6 72.2 57.0 35.6 3.8 7.6 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 2.8 7.8 6.5 66.0 54.5 36.2 3.0 6.5 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 4.1 13.2 6.7 74.9 58.6 36.5 4.8 9.8 17.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 2.8 7.0 5.7 61.0 53.1 33.0 3.2 6.2 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 3.5 10.9 7.1 70.3 55.9 37.1 4.2 8.8 15.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 2.3 7.0 6.9 75.1 58.0 36.4 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 6.1 15.2 8.8 77.4 58.1 38.6 6.8 12.1 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 3.5 9.9 6.8 66.7 54.8 33.8 4.3 8.5 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 5.0 13.0 8.9 73.8 57.1 36.8 5.8 10.4 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 4.6 11.1 5.7 66.5 54.9 33.6 5.5 9.6 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 3.6 9.2 6.2 69.4 55.4 35.4 4.0 7.6 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 2.2 8.8 6.3 71.3 57.3 34.4 2.7 6.5 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.9 9.6 8.3 63.7 53.2 37.8 4.6 8.7 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 3.1 11.0 5.3 73.7 58.7 36.5 3.6 7.9 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 2.8 8.6 5.8 70.8 57.0 33.7 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 3.8 10.7 7.1 74.9 58.3 36.6 4.0 8.1 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 4.8 12.2 10.8 79.2 59.1 40.1 5.3 9.4 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 3.2 8.8 6.3 67.5 55.2 35.5 3.4 7.3 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 4.1 11.6 12.3 87.6 61.4 44.6 4.3 8.2 13.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 3.9 10.3 6.5 64.1 54.2 34.0 4.6 8.9 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 4.8 10.8 7.3 71.9 57.5 36.8 4.8 8.8 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 3.5 7.2 5.9 59.3 51.6 35.6 3.5 6.8 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 5.3 13.3 8.4 68.7 55.1 37.4 5.7 11.2 19.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 3.4 10.8 8.2 78.5 60.6 38.4 3.8 7.6 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 3.1 9.3 5.2 71.2 56.7 36.1 3.5 7.3 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 3.4 10.1 8.3 80.4 60.5 38.4 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 2.7 9.4 6.1 75.2 58.7 36.1 2.9 6.7 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 6.9 16.4 11.6 82.7 59.7 42.6 7.4 12.5 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 2.3 6.6 6.6 71.7 56.5 35.4 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------