***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2018.-12.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 70.6 83.5 59.3 147.6 77.6 66.4 27.6 43.6 63.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 49.9 68.3 47.7 128.0 72.0 58.8 26.6 41.5 59.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 64.7 73.0 59.0 146.1 77.3 65.2 31.8 44.4 58.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 75.2 80.8 50.6 128.7 72.2 63.3 30.2 47.9 69.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 54.2 62.6 54.0 137.4 74.8 66.1 19.4 32.6 49.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 66.7 71.2 56.6 130.2 72.8 65.6 31.2 45.3 61.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 43.7 55.3 45.1 120.2 69.3 57.1 24.2 36.5 51.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 86.1 103.4 67.0 148.5 78.6 70.1 37.2 56.1 78.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 59.0 70.2 60.8 143.7 76.7 66.9 21.7 35.5 53.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 71.6 85.3 70.2 143.1 77.0 68.2 28.2 44.5 65.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 60.1 70.7 54.1 142.4 76.3 68.9 20.6 34.6 53.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 64.9 81.7 54.4 155.2 79.7 71.5 24.7 39.5 57.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 51.6 58.7 51.5 142.4 76.1 68.1 20.6 32.1 46.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 83.0 94.6 72.0 138.9 75.9 64.3 33.8 52.3 74.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 40.3 53.1 37.6 118.4 69.2 59.3 20.3 32.9 49.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 45.4 50.2 48.1 135.2 74.1 66.6 19.7 29.7 41.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 51.5 59.2 42.2 111.9 66.3 53.6 32.5 44.8 59.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 73.8 83.8 78.6 143.4 77.5 68.4 37.0 51.5 67.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 53.2 78.7 51.2 133.1 73.6 60.1 25.4 42.7 64.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 61.5 70.6 77.5 139.7 77.0 68.8 26.6 39.7 55.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 59.0 66.2 58.3 141.1 75.9 65.3 30.0 41.8 55.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 51.1 58.8 45.4 114.3 66.7 53.9 33.0 44.6 58.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 60.4 67.0 56.0 136.1 74.6 61.5 28.0 41.0 56.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 76.4 86.7 70.3 143.3 77.1 66.3 34.0 49.8 68.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 66.3 75.5 63.5 145.5 77.0 66.4 33.1 46.3 61.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 55.6 65.0 41.8 144.5 76.8 69.4 21.8 34.4 50.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 72.6 86.0 63.6 146.1 77.2 66.1 29.1 45.5 66.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 61.4 64.1 44.8 124.0 70.9 62.8 25.1 39.5 57.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 94.9 107.6 81.6 144.5 78.2 69.8 51.5 68.8 87.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 42.9 61.3 51.3 135.3 74.3 61.3 23.7 35.7 50.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------