***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 16.0 15.9 18.4 0.2 53.8 53.0 14.6 15.7 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 15.9 15.4 18.0 -0.1 48.0 48.4 14.4 15.5 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 18.1 17.8 18.5 0.1 51.6 51.3 16.5 17.7 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 13.9 13.1 15.7 -0.2 46.3 46.6 12.0 13.4 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 14.1 13.2 16.0 -0.3 43.5 44.3 12.4 13.6 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 11.1 11.0 12.0 -1.4 20.3 22.7 11.8 12.7 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 16.3 16.2 18.5 0.2 54.3 53.8 14.8 15.9 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 6.9 7.0 12.6 -0.9 30.4 32.1 7.2 8.3 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 15.4 15.1 16.4 0.0 50.3 50.4 14.0 15.1 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.3 14.2 14.0 -0.5 38.4 39.3 13.9 14.9 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 13.4 13.7 15.1 -0.7 35.6 37.0 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 11.5 11.7 13.8 -0.8 32.9 34.8 11.7 12.7 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 12.0 11.9 12.9 -1.5 18.8 21.0 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.0 14.9 15.6 -0.6 38.1 39.0 14.6 15.6 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 16.7 16.1 17.3 -0.2 46.1 46.7 15.4 16.3 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 13.7 13.8 14.2 -1.0 28.6 30.2 14.1 15.2 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 17.0 16.5 17.7 -0.2 46.9 47.5 15.7 16.7 17.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.6 12.1 13.2 -0.8 33.4 34.7 12.1 13.2 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 15.9 15.7 18.2 0.1 52.2 52.1 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 7.8 7.8 11.0 -1.0 28.8 30.7 8.0 9.0 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 15.2 14.7 17.4 -0.1 47.0 47.3 13.8 14.9 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 15.5 14.8 17.7 -0.3 43.7 44.3 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 15.2 15.4 18.5 0.5 60.1 59.2 13.9 14.9 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 15.8 14.8 15.7 -0.5 39.2 40.2 14.4 15.5 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.4 14.6 17.1 -0.2 45.9 46.4 13.7 14.9 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 12.3 12.1 12.0 -1.6 19.3 21.4 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 15.8 15.2 17.7 0.0 49.5 49.4 13.8 15.2 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.2 13.2 15.7 -0.5 39.2 40.2 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 11.3 11.3 12.2 -1.0 29.1 30.7 11.6 12.8 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 16.3 16.2 18.5 0.2 53.2 52.9 14.8 16.0 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------