***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 16.8 17.9 21.2 2.6 91.1 84.5 15.1 15.8 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 16.9 17.8 20.8 2.3 87.8 82.1 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 19.0 20.2 21.3 2.5 91.4 85.3 17.1 17.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 14.8 16.1 18.4 2.2 88.6 81.8 12.6 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 15.3 16.2 18.6 2.1 87.9 81.5 13.5 14.2 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 13.6 14.1 14.9 0.7 67.1 62.7 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 17.2 18.2 21.1 2.5 89.9 84.0 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 9.9 10.3 15.4 1.3 77.5 73.0 8.4 9.1 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 12 88 100 16.5 17.5 18.9 2.3 91.4 84.9 15.0 15.6 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 16.3 16.8 16.7 1.7 83.3 78.2 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 16.1 16.7 17.8 1.7 85.2 79.1 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 14.2 14.7 16.5 1.4 79.9 74.2 12.7 13.4 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 15.2 15.4 15.6 0.9 70.5 66.0 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 17.2 18.0 18.4 2.0 88.0 82.9 15.6 16.2 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 18.1 19.3 19.9 2.1 90.1 83.8 16.2 17.0 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 16.6 17.1 16.9 1.4 79.9 74.1 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 17.6 18.3 20.4 2.2 87.5 81.3 16.0 16.7 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 14.9 15.5 15.7 1.4 80.3 75.2 13.2 13.9 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 17 83 100 16.8 17.7 20.9 2.4 88.9 83.5 15.2 15.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 10.8 11.0 13.3 1.0 72.9 68.8 9.4 10.0 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 16.4 17.3 20.1 2.3 90.4 83.9 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 16.4 17.1 20.4 2.1 86.3 80.8 14.9 15.5 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 16.3 17.4 21.0 2.7 92.1 87.0 14.7 15.3 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 17.0 17.8 18.3 2.0 87.4 82.0 15.3 16.0 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 16.4 17.5 19.8 2.3 88.6 82.0 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 15.2 15.4 15.2 1.0 71.5 66.0 13.9 14.5 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 16.6 17.9 20.4 2.5 89.9 83.0 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 15.5 16.3 18.5 1.9 86.6 79.9 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 14.0 14.4 14.8 1.2 76.6 72.6 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 17.1 18.1 21.2 2.5 89.4 83.8 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------