***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.07.2017.-06.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 17.5 18.6 20.9 2.4 88.8 79.6 15.5 16.3 17.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 17.4 18.4 20.5 2.1 85.0 75.1 15.2 16.1 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 19.7 20.9 21.2 2.4 89.6 80.4 17.5 18.4 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 15.1 16.3 18.4 2.1 88.3 79.8 12.8 13.8 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 16.1 17.2 18.1 2.0 87.4 78.7 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 14.5 14.7 15.4 1.0 73.9 67.9 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 17.6 18.7 20.9 2.3 87.3 77.6 15.5 16.4 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 10.7 11.2 15.6 1.4 79.9 73.1 8.7 9.6 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 17.0 18.1 18.4 2.1 89.0 79.8 15.2 15.9 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 17.0 17.7 16.5 1.7 82.8 75.4 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 16.7 17.5 17.5 1.8 85.8 78.1 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 14.8 15.4 16.4 1.6 82.9 75.2 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 15.8 16.1 15.2 1.1 76.4 69.4 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 17.5 18.2 18.0 1.7 83.2 75.8 15.7 16.5 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 18.2 19.4 19.7 2.2 89.4 81.0 16.2 17.0 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 17.5 18.3 16.7 1.6 83.7 75.9 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 17.9 18.6 20.1 1.9 82.5 73.2 16.0 16.8 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 15.2 15.6 15.4 1.4 79.7 73.2 13.4 14.1 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 17.3 18.1 20.6 2.1 85.3 75.9 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 11.3 11.3 12.8 0.9 71.0 66.7 9.4 10.3 11.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 16.9 18.0 19.9 2.2 88.3 79.1 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 16.9 17.5 19.8 1.7 80.5 72.0 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 16.9 17.8 20.5 2.2 87.4 78.7 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 17.2 18.0 17.8 1.8 85.2 77.3 15.5 16.2 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 17.3 18.2 19.3 2.2 86.5 77.8 15.3 16.1 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 15.8 16.2 15.2 1.3 79.9 71.6 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 17.7 19.0 20.1 2.4 88.4 79.2 15.2 16.2 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 15.9 16.9 18.5 2.0 87.3 79.0 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 14.6 14.9 14.7 1.1 75.3 70.0 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 17.7 18.7 20.9 2.3 87.3 77.6 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------