***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.08.2017.-13.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 16.8 17.2 20.0 1.7 79.3 72.2 15.0 15.8 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 16.5 16.9 19.7 1.5 76.7 70.0 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 18.9 19.5 20.3 1.8 81.9 74.0 17.2 17.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 14.6 15.2 17.7 1.7 81.8 74.5 12.6 13.5 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 15.4 15.9 17.5 1.6 81.4 73.9 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 14.1 14.1 15.0 0.8 69.4 65.4 12.8 13.4 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 16.8 17.2 20.0 1.7 78.6 71.4 15.1 15.8 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 10.0 10.3 15.0 1.2 75.6 70.2 8.4 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 16.6 17.1 17.7 1.7 82.7 74.6 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 16.3 16.6 15.9 1.3 77.5 71.2 14.9 15.6 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 16.1 16.5 17.0 1.5 81.5 74.4 14.6 15.2 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 14.1 14.4 15.8 1.3 77.8 71.9 12.8 13.4 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 15.3 15.2 14.7 0.8 68.7 64.7 13.8 14.5 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 16.9 17.3 17.4 1.5 79.1 72.0 15.5 16.1 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 17.6 18.2 19.0 1.7 83.2 75.8 16.0 16.7 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 16.8 17.1 16.1 1.3 78.0 71.6 15.3 15.9 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 17.0 17.4 19.4 1.5 76.2 69.5 15.5 16.2 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 14.8 15.1 14.8 1.1 74.7 69.4 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 16.6 17.0 19.8 1.6 78.4 71.3 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 10.6 10.4 12.3 0.7 67.1 64.2 9.0 9.7 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 16.3 16.8 19.1 1.6 80.4 73.2 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 15.9 16.3 19.3 1.5 76.5 69.8 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 16.0 16.6 19.8 1.8 82.4 74.5 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 16.7 17.1 17.2 1.5 79.6 72.8 15.3 15.9 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 16.6 17.0 18.5 1.5 76.7 70.4 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 15.4 15.5 14.6 0.9 71.1 66.9 14.0 14.7 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 17.0 17.5 19.2 1.6 78.6 71.5 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 15.4 15.9 17.9 1.6 81.9 74.7 13.7 14.5 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 13.9 14.0 14.1 1.0 72.0 67.8 12.4 13.1 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 16.9 17.4 20.0 1.7 78.7 71.5 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------