***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-13.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 16.7 17.4 20.1 1.7 92.0 86.9 15.4 15.9 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 16.6 17.3 19.7 1.5 87.7 82.4 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 18.8 19.6 20.3 1.7 92.5 87.3 17.5 18.0 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 14.4 15.1 17.6 1.5 90.2 84.8 13.0 13.5 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 15.1 15.8 17.6 1.3 89.4 83.4 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 13.4 13.6 14.3 0.3 61.4 58.3 12.9 13.3 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 16.9 17.6 20.1 1.7 90.0 85.1 15.6 16.1 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 9.5 9.7 14.6 0.7 76.7 71.6 8.6 9.0 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 7 93 100 16.4 17.2 17.8 1.5 93.2 87.1 15.1 15.6 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 16.1 16.4 15.8 1.0 83.2 77.9 15.0 15.4 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 15.9 16.4 16.8 1.1 86.2 80.3 14.6 15.1 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 13.9 14.2 15.6 0.9 80.2 74.4 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 14.5 14.8 14.6 0.3 62.7 60.4 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 16.8 17.2 17.4 1.2 86.2 81.3 15.7 16.1 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 17.6 18.4 19.0 1.4 91.4 85.9 16.2 16.7 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 16.5 16.7 16.0 0.8 78.8 74.2 15.3 15.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 17.3 17.7 19.4 1.4 86.3 81.2 16.1 16.6 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 14.5 14.7 14.8 0.8 78.5 74.1 13.2 13.8 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 13 87 100 16.6 17.2 19.9 1.6 89.5 84.4 15.4 15.9 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 9.9 10.2 12.4 0.4 66.5 63.6 9.3 9.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 16.1 16.8 19.1 1.5 91.4 85.5 14.9 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 16.1 16.5 19.3 1.3 84.6 79.5 15.0 15.4 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 16.0 16.8 19.9 1.8 93.5 89.1 14.8 15.3 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 16.6 17.0 17.3 1.2 86.9 82.1 15.5 15.9 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 16.3 16.9 18.7 1.4 88.3 82.6 15.0 15.5 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 14.9 14.8 14.3 0.4 65.3 62.1 14.1 14.5 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 16.6 17.4 19.4 1.6 90.5 85.1 15.0 15.6 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 13 87 100 15.2 15.8 17.7 1.2 87.3 81.7 13.8 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 13.6 13.7 13.9 0.6 71.8 68.4 12.6 13.1 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 16.9 17.6 20.2 1.6 90.2 85.0 15.6 16.1 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------