***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 31.1 31.6 31.5 2.2 76.3 73.6 27.7 29.2 30.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 31.0 31.3 31.7 2.1 74.0 71.7 27.6 29.1 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 31.1 31.4 31.4 2.0 73.5 70.9 27.7 29.2 30.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 24.0 24.1 27.9 1.3 67.7 65.5 21.1 22.5 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 30.4 31.2 28.8 1.1 64.5 62.6 28.4 30.0 31.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 26.5 26.4 23.1 -1.8 24.3 28.3 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 30.9 31.2 31.5 2.1 74.2 71.6 27.6 29.1 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 18.0 17.3 25.2 -0.2 47.1 48.1 16.2 17.5 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 31.1 31.4 30.2 1.8 72.9 70.0 27.8 29.3 30.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 29.6 29.8 27.2 0.7 59.2 58.2 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 30.0 30.1 28.5 0.6 57.5 56.6 28.0 29.5 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 29.1 28.3 26.4 -0.2 47.2 48.2 27.1 28.5 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 30.4 28.9 26.4 -0.8 39.0 41.4 28.4 29.8 31.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 30.7 31.1 29.9 1.9 73.7 70.9 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 31.8 31.4 30.0 1.0 63.3 61.9 29.1 30.4 31.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 31.1 30.5 27.2 -0.1 49.0 49.7 29.1 30.5 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 30.2 30.6 31.2 2.1 73.8 71.4 27.1 28.5 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 28.6 28.7 26.1 0.5 56.9 56.1 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 30.7 31.1 31.8 2.3 76.6 74.1 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 24.5 23.0 22.7 -0.8 39.3 41.3 22.4 23.9 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 30.8 31.0 30.8 1.5 69.0 66.8 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 30.6 30.9 30.7 1.7 70.9 68.7 27.5 29.0 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 31.1 32.0 32.2 2.9 82.5 79.4 27.4 28.9 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 30.2 30.3 29.4 1.5 68.5 66.3 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 31.1 31.5 30.0 1.8 71.2 68.6 28.1 29.6 31.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 27.9 28.0 24.5 -1.5 29.6 33.6 28.2 29.5 30.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 30.6 31.1 30.7 2.0 74.4 71.8 27.4 28.9 30.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 30.8 30.9 28.1 0.5 56.6 56.1 29.1 30.4 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 24.0 23.6 24.9 0.1 51.1 51.3 22.1 23.5 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 30.8 31.2 31.6 2.0 74.1 71.6 27.4 29.0 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------