***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 30.6 32.3 33.3 3.7 90.4 83.4 27.8 28.9 30.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 30.6 32.2 33.1 3.6 88.8 81.7 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 30.6 32.5 33.4 3.7 89.6 82.4 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 24.6 27.0 30.9 3.7 91.3 82.7 20.9 22.4 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 31.6 33.5 31.5 3.5 88.8 81.1 27.9 29.4 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 29.7 29.7 26.9 1.3 68.1 62.7 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 30.2 31.9 33.1 3.6 89.4 82.5 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 19.5 20.3 28.6 2.6 81.7 74.4 16.3 17.6 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 31.1 33.4 32.3 3.9 91.4 83.3 27.4 28.8 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 30.9 32.4 30.0 3.2 85.8 78.4 27.1 28.7 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 31.2 32.8 31.2 3.2 86.7 78.8 27.4 28.9 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 30.4 31.5 30.0 2.8 83.2 75.3 26.8 28.3 29.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 31.3 31.7 29.5 2.1 76.5 70.2 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 30.4 32.2 31.4 3.7 89.1 81.6 27.1 28.4 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 32.0 34.1 32.5 3.4 91.4 81.7 28.7 30.0 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 32.2 33.5 30.4 2.8 83.6 75.9 28.5 30.1 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 29.9 31.5 32.6 3.5 88.7 81.6 27.0 28.2 29.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 29.8 30.9 29.0 3.0 83.9 77.1 26.4 27.8 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 30.0 31.7 33.3 3.7 89.5 82.2 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 25.7 25.9 25.9 2.0 75.0 70.0 22.3 23.7 25.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 31.0 32.9 32.9 3.6 89.2 81.6 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 30.3 31.6 32.2 3.2 86.3 79.1 27.4 28.6 29.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 30.2 32.3 33.5 4.2 91.8 84.2 27.1 28.4 29.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 30.1 31.9 31.3 3.5 88.2 80.9 26.9 28.2 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 31.2 33.2 31.9 3.7 90.1 82.4 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 30.8 31.2 28.8 1.9 74.9 68.5 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 30.5 32.2 32.4 3.7 90.2 82.8 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 31.9 33.7 31.2 3.2 88.4 79.3 28.7 30.0 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 25.2 25.9 27.7 2.6 80.1 74.1 21.8 23.2 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 30.3 32.0 33.2 3.6 88.9 81.9 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------