***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.08.2017.-13.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 30.8 31.6 32.3 2.9 81.6 75.6 28.0 29.2 30.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 30.3 31.0 32.0 2.6 78.8 72.8 27.9 29.0 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 30.4 31.2 32.6 3.0 81.7 75.3 27.9 29.0 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 23.8 24.9 30.8 3.1 84.5 78.0 20.8 22.1 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 31.3 32.2 30.8 2.9 82.0 75.8 28.5 29.7 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 29.6 29.6 27.0 1.6 71.0 67.1 27.1 28.2 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 30.0 30.6 31.9 2.6 78.7 72.9 27.7 28.7 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 18.6 19.3 28.6 2.5 78.4 72.6 16.5 17.5 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 30.4 31.4 31.1 3.0 82.9 76.4 27.9 29.0 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 30.1 30.9 29.5 2.8 80.5 74.3 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 30.7 31.6 30.4 2.8 81.9 75.7 28.1 29.2 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 29.7 30.5 29.9 2.5 79.0 73.3 27.3 28.4 29.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 30.9 31.2 28.7 1.9 73.3 68.9 28.5 29.6 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 30.1 31.1 30.2 2.9 81.3 73.9 27.6 28.8 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 31.4 32.4 31.5 3.1 85.6 79.1 28.8 29.9 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 31.9 32.5 29.9 2.6 79.7 74.1 29.2 30.3 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 29.7 30.2 31.5 2.5 77.1 71.3 27.1 28.3 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 29.0 29.7 28.7 2.7 78.8 72.4 26.8 27.8 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 30.0 30.8 32.2 2.8 80.1 73.8 27.4 28.6 29.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 25.1 25.4 25.7 2.0 73.4 68.4 22.8 23.9 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 30.5 31.3 31.8 2.8 81.0 75.0 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 30.2 30.8 31.2 2.4 76.3 70.4 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 30.0 31.0 32.3 3.1 82.5 75.7 27.6 28.7 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 29.7 30.6 30.3 2.9 81.2 74.3 27.4 28.5 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 30.9 31.7 30.8 2.9 82.0 76.2 28.3 29.4 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 30.7 31.0 29.1 1.9 74.4 69.6 28.2 29.3 30.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 30.3 31.1 31.4 2.9 81.9 75.9 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 31.3 32.2 30.8 2.9 83.3 77.1 28.6 29.8 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 24.4 25.0 27.4 2.3 75.8 69.9 22.2 23.3 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 30.2 30.9 32.2 2.7 79.9 73.8 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------