***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 90 10 0 100 1.4 0.9 0.9 9.0 16.7 12.7 3.0 6.8 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 91 9 0 100 1.3 1.0 0.9 8.3 16.9 12.8 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 91 9 0 100 1.4 1.2 0.9 9.6 17.9 12.7 3.0 6.1 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 3.1 4.0 2.6 32.0 35.0 26.9 3.6 8.0 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 1.9 2.5 2.2 27.9 33.1 24.6 2.5 5.7 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 9.1 9.3 6.5 85.7 60.6 47.6 2.5 5.9 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 92 8 0 100 1.2 0.8 0.8 7.3 15.2 11.6 2.6 5.7 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 4.7 7.0 4.5 53.3 46.0 34.1 4.5 8.0 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 1.5 1.7 2.1 24.6 31.0 21.8 2.0 4.5 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 3.1 4.3 3.7 38.6 38.7 28.1 3.4 6.6 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 2.2 4.4 3.2 49.4 44.6 31.0 2.4 5.5 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.2 6.6 3.9 62.4 50.7 37.4 2.7 6.3 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.0 4.8 4.5 65.9 54.9 40.8 1.5 3.8 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 85 15 0 100 2.2 1.6 1.5 12.0 19.5 14.8 3.9 8.5 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 2.0 3.1 2.3 36.4 38.5 25.8 2.3 5.2 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 2.0 3.8 3.6 53.2 47.6 34.9 1.9 4.2 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 92 8 0 100 1.7 1.4 0.9 8.7 16.5 12.5 3.1 5.4 8.4 29 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 2.9 3.8 3.8 34.6 36.0 26.6 3.3 6.5 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 90 10 0 100 1.6 1.2 0.9 8.8 17.6 13.3 3.2 6.7 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.2 5.2 5.2 55.0 46.0 34.0 2.9 6.1 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 83 17 0 100 1.5 1.6 1.5 17.0 25.5 17.9 2.4 5.0 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 96 4 0 100 1.1 0.7 0.7 6.4 14.5 11.0 2.6 5.4 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 89 11 0 100 1.7 1.2 0.9 8.2 16.7 12.7 3.1 5.8 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 82 18 0 100 2.0 2.0 1.9 18.0 24.8 17.7 3.2 6.8 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 89 11 0 100 1.4 1.3 1.1 10.3 20.4 16.4 2.9 6.3 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 6.7 7.8 4.3 96.4 63.6 48.8 1.8 4.5 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 89 11 0 100 1.8 1.3 1.0 9.0 17.6 13.8 3.6 9.0 17.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 2.7 4.2 3.2 43.4 41.8 30.7 2.7 6.0 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 3.2 4.4 3.6 33.6 34.7 25.6 4.1 7.9 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 90 10 0 100 1.7 1.3 0.9 8.5 16.9 12.8 3.4 6.7 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------