***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 3.6 11.2 8.0 75.7 57.2 37.2 3.0 8.1 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 3.4 10.0 7.6 75.7 57.5 39.5 3.3 7.3 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.3 9.9 7.6 71.9 55.9 38.0 2.9 7.5 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.2 15.8 9.5 103.6 66.6 43.5 3.2 8.0 15.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.2 9.9 8.4 87.4 61.1 41.6 2.9 6.6 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.9 15.4 11.6 114.5 69.2 49.0 3.3 7.3 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 4.5 9.7 7.0 67.8 53.8 38.7 4.2 8.6 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 6.3 20.2 9.8 95.4 63.7 42.9 6.0 12.4 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 2.6 9.4 8.3 81.1 58.7 39.9 2.6 6.5 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 4.1 13.9 9.3 84.8 60.2 40.5 3.8 9.1 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.1 9.6 8.3 86.1 59.7 41.7 2.9 6.5 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 3.5 13.7 8.3 95.0 63.3 43.0 3.0 7.6 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.3 11.5 8.5 105.8 67.4 43.5 3.1 6.3 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 5.0 13.4 9.3 69.0 54.4 38.1 4.9 11.1 21.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.4 11.4 9.4 111.9 68.4 40.0 2.4 5.4 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.1 9.4 8.9 107.7 67.4 45.4 2.8 5.4 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 6.3 14.5 7.0 66.4 53.2 38.9 6.5 12.8 22.3 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 4.2 16.1 10.8 85.5 59.9 40.8 4.3 10.5 20.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 4.0 12.8 8.2 80.3 58.9 39.3 3.8 8.9 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.2 15.7 12.1 101.0 65.3 43.1 5.0 9.6 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 2.9 10.8 8.0 81.4 58.8 36.9 3.3 7.5 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 6.1 17.2 9.0 86.3 60.8 40.9 6.1 11.9 20.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 3.7 11.4 8.1 72.7 56.2 39.3 3.8 8.8 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 3.7 10.8 9.1 72.9 55.3 38.7 3.4 8.6 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.0 13.8 10.2 94.2 63.1 41.1 3.8 8.2 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 10.3 18.4 11.0 134.9 74.3 54.9 3.9 8.1 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 3.1 9.8 9.0 77.5 57.1 37.3 3.4 7.4 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 4.3 18.6 9.9 118.7 70.7 43.1 4.0 8.6 15.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 7.6 23.1 12.2 93.4 62.4 43.2 7.6 15.1 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 4.1 11.0 7.7 73.7 57.0 39.7 4.2 8.6 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------