***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.07.2017.-06.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 3.0 9.4 5.7 69.9 57.3 33.3 3.5 7.2 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 3.8 10.1 5.0 68.1 56.1 35.0 3.7 8.0 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 3.0 9.3 5.8 74.7 58.3 34.0 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 3.2 11.5 5.7 80.4 60.5 35.6 3.0 7.3 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 2.7 9.4 5.2 82.6 60.7 34.3 3.0 6.3 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 3.1 11.8 7.6 90.7 63.2 38.0 3.4 7.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 3.1 7.6 4.5 60.4 52.7 34.6 3.1 6.8 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 4.5 13.5 6.3 79.2 59.0 36.8 4.4 9.5 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 2.9 9.7 5.4 80.8 59.8 34.3 3.0 6.6 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 4.0 12.9 6.7 82.0 59.9 36.0 4.1 8.9 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 2.5 9.3 5.0 80.3 59.7 34.5 2.6 6.2 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 3.2 9.8 5.2 80.3 59.9 35.9 3.4 7.0 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 2.5 8.2 5.6 81.4 59.8 34.8 2.8 5.7 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 3.4 10.1 7.0 70.1 56.6 36.6 3.0 7.4 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 2.0 7.8 5.3 80.3 61.1 35.1 2.0 4.9 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 3.1 9.9 5.2 81.1 60.0 34.8 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 4.3 10.1 4.9 63.6 54.5 36.3 4.2 8.6 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 3.6 12.5 8.4 88.0 61.9 39.2 4.2 8.3 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 3.6 11.2 5.4 72.0 57.4 35.0 3.6 8.3 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 4.1 10.0 7.9 75.4 56.9 38.3 4.7 8.2 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 2.4 8.6 5.1 74.8 58.2 33.7 2.7 6.2 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 3.2 8.1 5.9 72.3 58.0 38.3 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 2.8 8.5 5.4 71.2 56.9 35.4 3.1 6.6 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 4.3 12.9 7.1 82.5 60.1 37.3 4.6 9.1 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 2.8 9.2 5.7 72.0 58.1 36.5 2.7 6.6 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 3.5 10.9 5.0 89.7 62.5 36.7 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 2.8 9.9 5.8 66.3 56.0 33.7 2.9 7.4 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.6 8.6 5.9 85.5 62.2 35.9 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 4.6 15.4 9.1 86.9 61.4 40.2 4.9 10.3 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 2.9 8.0 5.3 68.9 56.5 34.6 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------