***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.08.2017.-13.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 2.8 8.8 6.9 72.9 57.4 34.5 3.0 6.6 12.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 3.4 9.8 6.5 70.0 56.0 35.2 3.9 7.8 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 2.9 9.3 7.3 74.8 58.2 35.1 3.0 6.6 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 3.9 12.1 6.9 70.9 58.0 32.3 4.4 9.2 15.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 3.0 8.7 6.4 74.4 58.9 32.8 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 3.9 11.0 8.1 75.2 58.7 35.3 4.0 8.1 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 2.7 7.4 6.5 73.4 56.5 35.6 3.2 6.0 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 5.9 14.7 7.8 75.8 58.0 38.1 6.1 11.4 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 4.3 11.3 6.4 68.0 56.7 32.8 4.7 9.0 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 5.7 12.2 7.5 67.5 55.4 35.3 6.1 10.5 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 4.5 11.2 6.1 75.4 58.3 34.0 5.2 8.9 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 3.3 9.0 6.3 75.4 57.9 35.9 3.8 7.1 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 2.7 9.5 6.8 74.9 58.4 33.6 2.9 6.9 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 5.3 11.6 8.6 66.6 54.4 33.9 5.4 10.0 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 2.7 10.4 6.3 74.9 59.2 31.7 3.5 7.4 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 3.0 8.7 6.3 72.9 58.0 31.9 3.6 6.8 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 3.0 9.4 7.0 73.8 58.0 37.5 3.5 7.1 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 5.4 10.9 8.6 65.7 54.1 36.4 5.7 9.7 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 2.8 8.3 6.6 69.1 55.5 34.7 3.2 6.7 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 3.9 9.6 9.6 72.2 55.6 39.3 3.8 7.8 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 4.1 12.3 6.9 73.1 58.8 33.2 4.3 8.9 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 4.0 10.3 7.6 72.2 57.1 37.7 4.4 8.2 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 2.6 7.3 7.0 69.1 55.2 33.6 2.8 6.0 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 6.2 13.8 8.2 70.0 55.8 35.3 6.3 11.6 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 3.8 10.1 6.7 66.2 55.8 33.5 4.0 8.2 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 2.7 9.3 6.0 84.2 61.6 35.8 2.8 6.1 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 2.8 7.4 6.7 67.1 55.4 34.3 3.1 6.1 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 2.7 10.7 7.0 75.4 59.6 32.2 3.1 7.2 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 6.4 13.6 9.3 67.1 53.8 37.7 6.7 12.2 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 2.8 7.4 6.8 71.5 56.2 34.9 3.1 6.1 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------