***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-13.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 20.6 28.3 21.5 56.5 37.6 31.0 24.1 40.4 61.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 19.5 25.7 20.0 53.7 36.8 31.5 22.6 37.9 57.6 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 24.8 33.7 21.5 57.6 38.3 30.9 29.8 43.3 59.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 26.5 45.5 24.8 72.2 48.5 38.3 29.7 47.4 70.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 17.4 29.9 22.3 68.0 46.2 37.4 20.1 33.2 50.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 26.9 48.9 33.8 91.7 57.2 47.6 26.8 41.3 59.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 17.4 20.5 18.8 50.6 33.4 29.5 20.2 33.9 51.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 30.5 50.1 28.3 76.4 48.2 41.0 33.0 52.4 76.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 22.1 33.3 22.3 63.7 42.4 34.8 26.0 39.6 55.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 23.7 36.8 27.2 68.2 43.3 36.6 26.7 44.4 66.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 18.5 31.6 22.7 73.7 48.2 40.6 18.9 33.4 52.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 22.4 39.4 23.6 79.3 51.2 43.2 22.9 38.0 57.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 19.1 34.5 25.5 82.5 53.8 44.3 19.2 31.2 46.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 26.8 35.3 26.4 54.2 34.4 29.9 33.8 53.7 78.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 18.6 35.2 23.3 78.1 53.2 40.4 19.6 32.4 48.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 18.9 31.5 24.0 79.7 52.2 43.0 19.4 30.0 42.8 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 29.3 33.9 19.8 51.5 34.8 30.8 32.7 45.3 59.7 29 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 29.9 42.8 31.6 68.4 43.0 36.8 34.0 49.7 68.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 18.3 26.1 21.1 55.7 37.7 31.7 22.2 39.5 62.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 25.5 38.0 34.9 76.1 46.9 40.7 26.9 40.8 57.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 24.5 36.0 21.4 61.7 41.4 32.5 29.8 42.9 58.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 28.1 35.3 23.2 57.5 37.3 31.8 32.3 44.9 59.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 18.9 25.5 21.3 54.1 35.6 30.1 23.7 37.6 55.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 26.5 36.9 26.3 61.0 38.8 32.6 31.5 49.0 70.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 23.7 34.6 23.7 59.8 39.2 31.6 29.8 44.4 61.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 40.9 47.3 26.3 103.8 63.7 53.6 20.3 33.5 50.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 21.4 28.7 22.5 54.5 35.4 29.9 26.8 43.6 64.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 22.4 42.7 26.0 81.8 54.1 41.2 23.7 38.6 57.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 40.4 55.9 34.3 71.0 43.5 37.7 44.7 63.4 84.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 18.8 24.6 20.7 54.4 36.2 30.9 22.2 35.4 52.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------