***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.07.2016.-24.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.2 14.8 17.5 -0.8 35.6 37.0 14.7 15.8 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 16.0 15.3 17.8 -0.3 44.4 45.2 14.6 15.7 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.3 17.2 18.0 -0.5 39.7 41.0 16.7 17.9 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 14.0 13.6 15.8 0.0 49.0 49.1 12.3 13.7 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 14.1 13.2 16.2 -0.4 42.1 43.0 12.6 13.7 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 12.9 12.5 13.6 -0.2 45.5 46.0 11.8 12.7 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.5 15.3 17.7 -0.7 37.9 39.2 15.0 16.1 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 8.8 8.8 13.9 0.1 53.1 52.9 7.5 8.6 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 15.5 15.1 16.6 -0.1 48.9 49.2 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 15.2 15.1 14.9 0.1 52.4 52.4 14.0 15.0 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 14.9 14.3 16.1 -0.2 45.5 46.0 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 13.0 12.7 15.0 0.0 49.5 49.7 11.8 12.7 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 14.0 13.4 14.8 -0.3 43.3 44.0 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 16.1 16.1 16.6 0.3 55.6 55.3 14.8 15.8 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 16.6 15.9 17.6 -0.3 42.7 43.4 15.4 16.3 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 15.6 14.9 15.5 -0.3 44.1 44.8 14.2 15.3 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 17.0 16.8 17.8 0.0 50.9 51.0 15.8 16.8 17.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 13.5 13.6 14.5 0.3 55.8 55.5 12.2 13.3 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 16.0 15.6 17.9 -0.2 46.7 47.2 14.8 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 9.2 9.3 12.5 0.2 54.3 54.1 8.2 9.0 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.3 14.4 17.6 -0.5 40.5 41.6 13.9 15.0 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 15.6 15.4 18.1 0.1 51.2 51.4 14.3 15.3 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 15.3 15.2 18.1 0.1 52.1 52.2 14.1 15.1 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 15.8 15.8 16.7 0.2 53.8 53.7 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 13.7 14.0 16.6 -0.8 34.6 36.1 13.8 15.0 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.2 13.4 13.7 -0.4 41.6 42.2 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 16.0 14.2 17.0 -0.8 35.9 37.2 13.9 15.4 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 14.1 13.7 16.4 -0.1 48.5 48.6 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 89 11 100 13.2 13.1 13.5 0.1 51.5 51.5 11.9 13.0 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.6 15.3 17.8 -0.6 38.4 39.7 15.0 16.1 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------