***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.08.2016.-07.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 28.1 28.5 28.6 -1.2 33.4 37.0 28.5 29.7 30.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 27.9 28.6 28.9 -0.9 38.3 40.7 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 28.0 28.7 29.3 -0.8 39.2 41.1 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 23.2 22.5 27.9 -0.2 47.0 47.0 21.5 22.7 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 30.6 29.7 27.9 -0.3 45.6 45.7 28.7 30.0 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 29.2 29.2 25.9 0.3 55.0 52.8 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 27.7 28.1 28.6 -1.2 34.0 37.6 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 18.6 18.4 26.5 0.3 54.3 51.8 17.1 18.1 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 28.2 29.4 28.0 -0.3 46.4 45.9 28.4 29.6 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 27.9 29.4 26.9 0.1 51.3 49.3 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 30.1 29.8 27.9 0.2 53.1 51.2 28.3 29.6 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 29.3 29.2 27.9 0.4 55.2 53.0 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 30.4 30.1 26.9 0.1 51.4 50.6 28.8 30.0 31.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 27.7 28.8 27.2 -0.4 44.6 44.5 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 30.9 30.5 29.1 0.0 50.3 49.3 29.4 30.5 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 31.0 30.9 27.8 0.3 54.5 52.6 29.4 30.6 31.8 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 27.2 27.9 28.6 -0.9 38.0 41.0 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 26.9 28.3 26.1 0.0 49.4 47.6 27.2 28.3 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 27.5 28.4 29.2 -0.7 41.2 42.6 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 23.0 24.5 24.0 0.2 53.1 50.5 23.2 24.3 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 28.2 29.0 28.6 -0.8 39.6 41.1 28.5 29.7 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 27.5 28.3 28.5 -0.9 37.8 40.6 28.0 29.2 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 27.8 28.9 29.3 -0.3 45.8 45.6 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 27.6 28.7 27.5 -0.3 45.8 45.3 27.8 28.9 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 28.4 28.9 27.2 -1.0 35.9 38.6 28.7 29.9 31.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 30.0 30.1 27.9 0.5 57.3 54.9 28.4 29.6 30.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 27.9 28.3 27.8 -1.1 34.4 37.8 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 30.8 30.5 28.6 0.2 53.0 51.4 29.3 30.4 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 22.5 23.7 25.1 -0.1 48.1 46.8 22.7 23.8 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 27.7 28.3 28.9 -1.1 35.8 38.8 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------