***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-14.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 27.6 27.9 28.8 -1.5 31.4 35.6 28.0 29.3 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 27.5 28.1 29.2 -1.2 35.7 39.0 27.9 29.0 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 27.6 28.1 29.4 -1.1 35.9 39.2 27.9 29.0 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 20.6 21.7 28.0 -0.5 43.9 46.3 20.9 22.1 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 28.2 29.2 28.0 -0.7 41.4 44.2 28.5 29.8 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 28.8 28.4 26.0 0.1 51.4 51.7 27.2 28.3 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 27.2 27.6 28.8 -1.4 32.2 36.2 27.6 28.7 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 16.2 17.6 26.7 0.0 49.8 50.4 16.5 17.6 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 27.6 28.5 28.1 -0.6 41.6 44.3 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 27.4 28.7 27.1 -0.3 46.4 47.9 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 27.9 29.2 28.1 -0.1 48.2 49.2 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 27.2 28.6 28.0 0.1 50.7 51.1 27.5 28.6 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 28.4 29.7 27.1 -0.1 49.0 50.1 28.6 29.7 30.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 27.3 28.1 27.4 -0.8 39.5 42.4 27.7 28.8 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 28.6 29.8 29.2 -0.1 48.1 49.6 28.8 29.9 31.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 29.0 30.4 27.9 0.0 50.4 51.0 29.2 30.4 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 26.8 27.3 28.8 -1.2 35.6 39.1 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 26.5 27.6 26.3 -0.4 45.0 46.9 26.8 27.9 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 27.1 27.8 29.4 -1.0 37.6 40.6 27.5 28.7 29.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 22.5 23.9 24.2 -0.1 49.2 50.1 22.8 24.0 25.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 27.6 28.2 28.7 -1.1 36.2 39.7 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 27.3 27.8 28.6 -1.2 35.1 38.8 27.6 28.9 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 27.4 28.2 29.4 -0.8 40.3 42.8 27.7 28.8 29.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 27.0 27.9 27.6 -0.7 41.3 43.8 27.4 28.5 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 27.9 28.3 27.4 -1.3 33.5 37.7 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 29.9 29.7 27.9 0.3 54.5 54.4 28.3 29.4 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 27.5 27.8 28.0 -1.4 32.0 36.2 27.8 29.0 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 28.5 29.8 28.7 0.0 49.6 50.5 28.7 29.9 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 21.8 23.0 25.3 -0.4 44.5 46.6 22.2 23.3 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 27.4 27.9 29.1 -1.3 33.4 37.1 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------