***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.07.2016.-24.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 2.8 3.6 3.7 39.3 35.4 29.3 3.1 7.3 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 2.3 2.9 3.6 40.8 37.0 29.9 2.4 5.0 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 2.7 3.6 3.5 42.9 37.1 30.1 3.0 6.2 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 2.9 3.5 2.9 32.9 33.1 27.6 3.5 7.7 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.1 5.3 4.3 58.8 47.4 38.0 2.6 5.9 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 3.0 3.7 3.6 43.3 38.6 33.5 2.9 5.9 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 2.4 2.8 3.7 39.2 35.7 29.1 2.5 5.5 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 4.0 6.2 4.7 54.0 44.5 36.1 4.1 7.4 11.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 1.9 3.4 4.2 52.2 44.2 34.7 1.9 4.4 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 3.8 6.4 5.3 57.2 46.6 37.9 3.8 7.2 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 2.4 5.0 3.6 57.0 46.0 34.7 2.7 5.8 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 2.7 4.6 3.3 50.6 42.9 33.4 2.9 6.3 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.9 6.2 5.4 87.5 60.6 50.9 1.7 4.1 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 3.2 5.9 5.3 48.1 40.1 28.9 4.2 8.6 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 85 15 0 100 1.3 1.1 1.2 16.1 22.6 17.4 2.2 4.7 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.6 4.3 3.9 61.5 48.0 39.4 2.3 4.6 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 2.3 3.2 3.9 39.1 36.7 29.5 2.7 5.4 9.3 29 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 3.0 5.4 6.3 55.9 44.5 35.2 3.4 6.5 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 2.8 4.0 3.9 43.1 39.1 30.6 3.1 6.2 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 3.2 5.2 6.5 56.6 44.8 38.1 3.0 6.3 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 2.7 3.9 3.9 49.7 41.3 33.6 2.7 5.4 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 2.4 4.2 4.8 49.0 43.2 32.4 2.7 5.4 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 2.0 3.4 4.0 42.4 39.4 29.7 2.6 5.0 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 2.8 5.3 4.9 49.9 41.7 30.8 3.6 7.5 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.2 4.6 4.7 50.2 43.6 36.7 2.8 6.0 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.2 2.4 1.9 43.7 38.6 35.0 1.7 4.2 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 3.3 3.9 4.0 38.6 36.0 30.4 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 2.5 2.7 2.4 30.0 31.3 25.8 3.0 6.8 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 4.0 6.2 6.0 52.0 41.6 34.0 4.2 8.4 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 2.9 3.7 3.6 40.7 36.0 29.3 3.2 6.3 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------